Prediction for the fight Andrey Orlovsky vs Don'Tail Mayes

One of the most active fighters in the UFC heavyweight division, Andrey Orlovsky, will fight his 58th professional fight in Las Vegas on June 4 at UFC on ESPN 46. His opponent will again be a little-known prospect, Don'Tale Mayes, whom some will only remember by losing to Cyril Gan. The match itself is just perfect: two strikers, with almost the same odds, youth versus experience - classic MMA, and nothing else.

Andrey Orlovsky vs Don'Tail Mayes

Andrey Orlovsky

The Belarusian-American Pitbull is the proud owner of a gold medal from the World SAMBO Championships, ex-UFC champion, winner of the European MMA Championship held by M-1 Global, and also the record holder of the planet's top league in terms of the number of blows landed and time spent in the octagon. Of course, Orlovsky is no longer the same as before, but he has been written off for the last decade, but Andrei always closes the mouths of critics with his victories.


Even in "retirement age", Orlovsky remains a terrific drummer. He added a cold calculation to his technique and former speed - clear work for points, minimizing damage by all available means. At the same time, Andrey distributes attacks well on the floors, due to punches to the body and low kicks, and also perfectly defends against takedowns. On top of that, the footwork and mobility of the veteran will be envied by many young heavyweights who are used to digging their feet into the cover of the cage.


For many years in the sport, "Pitbull" has not become addicted to the stalls - his defense on the ground is still lame. And besides, there are some problems with understanding wrestling and grappling. And about the wear and tear of the body, and that very “crystal jaw” of Andrei, legends are already being made, although far from every top heavyweight manages to get Datsik’s former victim.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Orlovsky is 44 years old, but this did not prevent him from winning 4 of his last 5 performances. Marcos Rogerio De Lima, at the expense of BJJ, was able to defeat his colleague, but the middle peasants, like Jake Collier, Jared Vanderaa, Chase Sherman and Carlos Filipe, went the full distance with him, failing to convince the judges of their superiority. Andrey performs consistently, demonstrates optimal form for three-round bouts, and is very competently led by matchmakers in order to earn his pension. Therefore, in the upcoming battle, one should expect from him the previous work for points, and nothing more.

Andrey Orlovsky vs Don'Tail Mayes

Don'Tail Mayes

The American athlete, regardless of the base in judo, for the most part relies on shock equipment and his dimensions. In addition to 3 races in the Challenger Series, he boasts bi-state judo champion status, as well as a Hoosier FC regional league belt. Otherwise, Mayes is an unremarkable fighter who is thrown under a veteran. A victory will give him a chance to become more visible to the audience, a defeat will send him to the number of 4 no-names that Orlovsky has beaten in the last 2 years.


Even against the backdrop of a new generation of heavyweights that skillfully drive a weight of 120 kg, Don'Tail looks quite large: his height and arm span are one of the largest in the heavyweight. It is not surprising that the American is in full order with a blow, however, “Kong” can no longer be attributed to punchers, but to generalists, since with skillful drummers he can switch to the battle for points without aggravations. Active work on the body and good speeds give him the opportunity to feel free in the rack, but not on the ground.


Both vertically and horizontally, Mayes does not shine with the effectiveness of protection. By the way, he misses even more than he throws out, but here it is worth making allowances for the opposition that he dealt with in the UFC. On the ground, we rarely saw Don'Tale, and he only succeeds when he attacks, and not vice versa.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

"Lord Kong" is only 31 years old, and his statistics in the top promotion look debatable. Ghana's defeat can be easily justified by the difference in class and background, but Rodrigo Nascimento and Augusto Sakai are clearly not the kind of guys that a high-class striker can lose to. Mayes defeated Rocky Martinez and Josh Parisyan, and Hamdi Abdelwahab lost, allegedly due to the use of banned substances. Don'Tale can work for 15 minutes, he has no global problems with the functionality, but the lack of stability and noticeable progress in skills suggests that we have another temporary player in the heavy division who will help improve the statistics of more ambitious guys.

Comparative analysis

Not only is Mayes younger than Orlovsky by 13 years, he has 11 cm longer arms and 8 cm of superiority in height. In addition, Don'Tail weighs a good 10 kg more, so in all these indicators, Pitbull loses miserably. However, youth and physics end where technique and experience begin. Andrey has complete order with this, and even despite his skills on the ground, he will look a little more interesting on the ground than his counterpart, only here we are forced to return to the dimensions again - it will be extremely difficult to knock down and hold the "Kong". Whatever it was, first of all we are talking about strikers, and here the strength with the advantages in the reach of the arms will play a crucial role for Mayes.

He is fresher, tolerates damage much better, and even with Orlovsky’s perfect footwork, which does not get better with age, the American’s sweeping laterals can overtake the target and complete the finish even before the total under gong (2.5) 2.85. Although in the case of another tactical triumph from the Pitbull, we may find that Don'Tail's initial aggression will take precedence over the veteran's "pokes". Both normally work out the full distance, because the role of Andrey as a player will not contribute to his victory in this particular case. Simply put, the combination of Mayes' strengths outweighs the ex-champion's current capabilities.

Andrey Orlovsky vs Don'Tail Mayes Prediction

Based on dry statistics, we state the fact that for both, early victories are more luck and the optimal selection of opposition than a pattern. Both of them are counting on protracted fights, so we have every chance to see a chess game, 3 rounds long. True, it will be Mayes who will be the aggressor in it, since it is in his interests to rework the active “pensioner”, especially at the start, taking a break closer to the equator, and pressing on in the last minutes.

From Orlovsky we will see a lot of low kicks from a long distance and singles, less often - deuces, all from the same safe distance. And Don'Tale will go forward, control the octagon, and look for a target, thereby becoming a favorite in the eyes of the judges. For this reason, that in the cut of the early end of the meeting, that in the battle for 15 minutes, I see Mayes as the winner. Although, here it is more reasonable to bet on total rounds (total over(2.5)), since Andrey knows how to surprise with his meticulous performances with minimal activity and an emphasis on dry defense. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Don'Tale Mayes / total over to win (2.5) by rounds

Add comment

Leave comment for feedback

reload, if the code cannot be seen

Comments 0