Prediction for the fight Shamil Abdurahimov vs Sergey Pavlovich

Confrontations between Russian fighters on American soil became commonplace when Russian athletes began to be massively signed up for Western promotions. And at UFC Fight Night 204, a pair of heavyweights, Shamil Abdurahimov and Sergey Pavlovich, will split the octagon to challenge the 10th position in the ratings, which, despite recent misses, is still held by a native of Dagestan.

For Pavlovich, this is a real opportunity to become the top, having passed an age-old opponent, but this fight will not be easy for him. Despite its age, the Abrek still has enough gunpowder to compete at a fairly high level. Therefore, we will conduct a detailed analysis before determining a potential winner in this fight.

Shamil Abdurahimov vs Sergey Pavlovich

Sergey Pavlovich

The Russian has played only three performances under the auspices of the UFC, so while his name is not listed in the ratings. He has rich experience in martial arts: Greco-Roman wrestling, combat sambo, army hand-to-hand combat - all this has become Sergey's single basis in MMA. He was the champion of Russia in universal combat, and then confirmed his class at the European and World Championships, where he took gold medals.

In mixed martial arts, Pavlovich also did not miscalculate, in 2017 he won the belt of the prestigious Fight Nights Global league, and after holding a successful defense. Having killed many Russian tops, the Rostov athlete switched to the American opposition, and now he is confidently climbing up, having victories over Alexei Kudin, Mikhail Mokhnatkin, Kirill Sidelnikov and others.


Sergey's obvious trump card is his striking technique. He does not kick, uses pure boxing, but due to the past in other martial arts, he confidently works out in clinches and has mastered the ground and pound technique well. In addition, this is one of the most active heavyweights, doing a lot of work in each round - combinations and lightning-fast series in his performance do not give the opponent a second to breathe.


The ground floor is Pavlovich's weak point, and it all starts with defense, because it is quite easy to transfer him, despite the base in the fight. So far, no one has been able to submit the Rostovite, but a good wrestler is quite capable of bringing him in the stalls. And, as it turned out, the division's elite strikers are also able to get through Sergey's block, which was clearly demonstrated to us by Alistair Overeem. Simply put, this fighter is impeccable in attack, but he still has a lot of work to do in retreat.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Pavlovich is only 29 years old, and in 15 professional fights he has only one defeat, from the same Overeem, under whom our athlete was thrown in his debut under the UFC banner. However, with the middle peasants like Marcelo Golm and Maurice Green, he dealt easily, and the gradual increase in the level of opposition will allow him to smoothly enter the competitive rhythm. The only significant problem hanging over Sergey now is the downtime since October 2019, and who knows if he was able to keep his condition normal and not rust at such a young age.

Shamil Abdurahimov vs Sergey Pavlovich

Shamil Abdurahimov

An athlete from Makhachkala came to mixed martial arts from Wushu Sanda. In this type of martial arts, he achieved all sorts of heights, winning first place in the Russian Championship five times. Among other things, Shamil excelled in wrestling and boxing, which helped him adapt to MMA. Here he happened to become the champion of the ADFC Grand Prix, achieve the status of one of the best ProFC fighters and get into the UFC TOP-10.

During his long career, Abdurahimov walked through such legends as Jeff Monson, Andrey Orlovsky, Kenny Garner and others. Now, the age group is trying to stay on the crest of the wave, but the younger generation is rightfully taking its own. By the way, given the situation in Shamil's career, after another defeat, he may well be fired from the UFC.


Abdurahimov is a real all-rounder. Undoubtedly, he reveals himself better in the standing position, but the veteran's stalls deserve respect, even if his translations are far from ideal. "Abrek" is well discharged with his legs, has knockout power, and in general is the most dangerous martial arts master, if not for one "but".


Age and injuries are the problems that Shamil has been struggling with over the past few years. He slows down with each fight, holds the blow worse and is less and less active. His accuracy began to limp, and there is no need to talk about defensive actions at all - either a novice or a long-shot down pilot is capable of stagnation or backing away from attacks in a straight line.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Abdurahimov is 40 years old, and this is not the case when the weight is revealed in all its glory by the anniversary date. Since 2017, our fighter has fought only 5 fights, defeating Chase Sherman, Marcin Tybura and Orlovsky, but in the last two fights, he was knocked out by Curtis Blades and Chris Dokas, and this is taking into account the long downtime between each performance. Simply put, in the future, only drawdowns and an early end of a career should be expected from Shamil.

Comparative analysis

Traditionally, we start with anthropometry: if the height of the fighters is identical, then in the span of his arms Pavlovich breaks out to some prohibitive 20 cm, which will play a monumental role during the fight. A gap no less depressing for Shamil is observed in the amount of work performed - Sergey hits the target up to 3 times more often, and there is no need to talk about the discrepancy in age at 11 years old. The athlete from Rostov will definitely be more mobile, faster, and his striking power will surpass what Abdurahimov can offer.

However, the ground goes in favor of the veteran, although there is such a moment as his ability to perform takedowns, even in light of the fact that Sergey allows himself to be transferred in most cases, remains questionable. Abrek’s “leg-arm” ligaments fly out noticeably better, but all this will not have such significant weight, since Pavlovich will be able to escape from the lion’s share of the Dagestan’s attacks, and by controlling the distance, break him with his own combinations, and not let him work in response . The issue of stamina will also be at stake, because looking at the results of Abdurahimov's previous performances, it becomes clear that he will not be able to stand in the line of fire for a long time.

Shamil Abdurahimov vs Sergey Pavlovich Fight Prediction

Most of the trump cards in this game are in the hands of Sergei, and Shamil will have to do many times more than his opponent in order to win. If he does not immediately occupy the center of the octagon, from where he can shoot kicks and hold the defense, Pavlovich will quickly seize the initiative and start working, and under his pressure to withstand the round is already an achievement. Even if it comes to the stalls, it is very difficult to delay the young prospect there, therefore it is worth considering this fight as Abdurahimov's swan song. Either he will leave himself in the cage, or they will take him out of there. Well, for those who still doubt Sergey's victory, the bet on total rounds (TM 2.5) will come in handy, because this fight will not end in any other way than an early end. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Victory of Sergei Pavlovich

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