Prediction for the fight Sergei Spivak vs Marcin Tybura

In 2020, young Sergey Spivak went to fight a seasoned veteran, Marcin Tybura. Then their fight ended with a judge's decision in favor of the Pole, and only now, in the main fight of UFC on ESPN 61, Sergey has a chance to get even for this defeat. Their fight will take place on the morning of August 11, and will be held in a 5-round format. So what will be more effective this time: youth or experience? 

• Sergei Spivak vs Marcin Tybura ;
• Sergei Spivak;
• Marcin Tybura;
• Comparative analysis;
• Game Totals Prediction.

Sergei Spivak vs Marcin Tybura

Sergei Spivak

"Polar Bear" is one line lower - at position 9. Sergey is also into BJJ, to which he added judo, so he prefers to spend the lion's share of time on the ground floor. Before us is the WWFC champion with two belt defenses, and the happy owner of the only bonus from the UFC, which was earned in a fight with Derrick Lewis. 

Strengths

Spivak doesn't linger in the stance for long, attacks exclusively the head, and then starts spamming with takedowns - he does them a lot and often. On the ground floor, in terms of technique and understanding of the game, everything is in order: ground-and-pound, submissions, control of the opponent - everything is brought to automatism. And the Moldavian heavyweight confidently defends himself from takedowns "almost always". 

Weaknesses

Almost all of Sergey's troubles are concentrated in the vertical position. He openly moves forward, presses, throws series, but he is in no hurry to return his hands to his head. Of the 4 defeats in his career, 3 times he had to fall, and not always from masters of striking technique. 

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Spivak is 29 years old, and before the defeat to Cyril Gan, he was on a series of three victories: Lewis, Sakai and Dan Hardy were included in this list. Sergey is in his prime, and despite the fact that he has not fought for almost a year, he will definitely show something new, since before the extreme failure, all of his opponents were finished. Therefore, we should expect high preparation and motivation from him, especially in the rematch. 

Marcin Tybura

The Pole rose to 8th place in the ranking after his latest victory. Tybura is actively involved in jiu-jitsu, has repeatedly won competitions in this discipline and has now reached the status of a black belt. In MMA, he distinguished himself during his performances in M-1, taking first place in the Heavyweight Grand Prix there, and then the champion's belt. In the UFC, apart from three bonuses for finishes, he did not claim anything else. 

Strengths

Marcin is good at a little bit of everything: he hits hard, but does not stand out with some kind of extreme combination work or "one-punch", and feels quite comfortable on the ground - his base in BJJ makes itself felt. The fighter defends well from transfers, and in general, he creates problems both at a distance and in the clinch. And returning to the ground, one cannot help but note "Tybur's" talent in ground and pound. 

Weaknesses

Marcin has good starts, he moves quite quickly, but his footwork quickly comes to naught, the Pole stagnates and, as a result, often gets knocked out, since 63% of his defeats were achieved in this way. And if he is forced to retreat, the effectiveness of Tybura's attacks also decreases, and it is difficult for him to defend against fast and powerful punches, since his block sometimes fails. 

The current form and readiness of the fighter

The fighter is 38 years old, if you take his last five performances, you can see two defeats from Alexander Volkov and Tom Aspinall, and victories over Alexander Romanov, Blagoy Ivanov and Tai Tuivasa. Of course, we can't help but mention Spivak - he also defeated him. Tybura's current form is satisfactory, he is experienced, dangerous at the start, although he has lost a lot of reflexes and speed. 

Comparative analysis

The fighters are absolutely equal in anthropometry, only Marcin's legs will definitely be longer. In their first fight, Spivak simply did not have enough power and experience to withstand the Pole's lunges in the stand-up and his wrestling skills. Now, Sergey's boxing has become better, and Tybura has aged and slowed down, so it will be easier for the "Polar Bear" to attack him and, perhaps, even manage to pass the defense from takedowns, although this is not the best game plan.

In fact, the picture of the fight will not change dramatically: both will maintain a long distance, then close in with blows and make transfers, getting stuck at the net in clinches. With his current dimensions and general freshness, Spivak is simply obliged to outwork his opponent, who begins to reduce his work rate towards the equator of the fights. And given the holes in both of their defenses, we'll see plenty of tough moments.

Unlike the first fight, now they will have 5 rounds, and neither of them has gone that distance yet, so aiming for an early end to the fight is one of the best options. Otherwise, the chances of winning are higher for the young and ambitious Sergey, who still has something to prove in the mid-level caste, unlike the veteran, whose prospects are rather vague. 

Sergei Spivak vs Marcin Tybura Prediction

This fight is unlikely to be fast, the guys in front of us are too viscous and take a long time to get going. After clinches, sessions on the ground and other things, they will warm up and go forward, where the winner will be determined - no later than the 4th round. As mentioned earlier, a bet on an early end to the fight by either side, even if it is not the highest odds, is the most acceptable. With all the variables, there is more faith in the current version of Sergey Spivak, even if the guys' chances are extremely close. Download 1xbet to your phone and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Sergey Spivak wins/Early fight finish/TM (3.5) by rounds