Prediction for the fight Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Pavlovich

Texas has long been the second home for the UFC - local fans create a special atmosphere at every promotion tournament. That is why the UFC 277 numbered event was decided to be held here, within the walls of the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The main card of the event, in addition to title bouts, will be decorated with a fight between top heavyweights: Derrick Lewis, who is from there, and Sergey Pavlovich.

For the latter, this fight can become a ticket to the top five, but first he will have to clash with the Black Beast. And on July 31, we will get an answer on whether the Russian will be included in the title race of the heavyweight division. Lewis is definitely not a gift, but in this category there has always been a place for upsets and unexpected endings, so let's not rush to conclusions.

Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Pavlovich

Derrick Lewis

This big guy takes the 5th line of the heavyweight rating. He has many years of boxing under his belt, although in some ways Derrick excelled in BJJ, reaching blue belt level there. It was due to striking technique that he managed to win not only the Legacy FC league title, but also twice achieve the status of the main contender for UFC gold, even though both attempts turned out to be failures.

Also, in Lewis's collection there are 7 bonuses for furious knockouts, and he cut down, admittedly, many current tops of the organization. This list included Alexander Volkov, Marcin Tybura, Curtis Blades and many others, whose fighting technique was more versatile and effective, as it might seem at first glance.


Derrick is not a techie, often his movements even look ridiculous, but no one can take away his knockout blow. Short hooks, uppercuts, and even jabs, he manages to hit so hard that opponents fall from them like they were knocked down.

Despite his obesity and general slowness, Lewis throws oncoming punches with an enviable frequency, finds the moment to explode and reduce the distance, and also gives out some kind of feints, in the form of blows from the stretch and other things. Together, this makes him unpredictable, which is unlikely to please potential opponents of this guy.

The "Black Beast" rarely descends to the ground, and does not seek victory in this position. However, when he shocked the opponent, and he did not completely turn off, it is time for ground and pound. On top, Derrick is incredible, and his strength is revealed here in a special light.


Cardio is the problem that the American cannot solve throughout his career. Even in not the most dynamic fights, he begins to breathe already in the 2nd round. And if we are talking about fuss on the ground, then everything happens many times faster. That is why Lewis refused to participate in fights for 5 rounds.

In some fights, the Texan's rivals have demonstrated that he can be dismantled due to speed and footwork. However, if you want to declassify Derrick, do it on the ground. Modest in size, Daniel Cormier showed how helpless this puncher is on the ground floor. And here we are not talking about sweeps or something like that, it is corny that it barely rises from there under its own weight, not to mention the pressure from above.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Lewis is 37 years old, and his last 5 performances did not reach the final gong. Cyril Gan and Tai Tuivasa (February of this year) finished the American, although knockouts were issued on his part in meetings with Alexei Oleinik, Curtis Blaydes and Chris Dokas. Derrick noticeably sags in terms of functionality, he throws fewer and fewer blows, he no longer has the former quickness, although sometimes he still manages to explode. The “Black Beast” has not shown anything new in the octagon for a long time, it is practically untrainable, and relying on pure boxing, even with such strength, at such a high level, is a little naive. However, no one canceled a crazy blow, and who, if not Lewis, managed to surprise everyone with sudden victories, even when he was a big underdog?

Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Pavlovich

Sergey Pavlovich

The Rostov athlete occupies the 11th line in the heavyweight rating. His background consists of performances at various levels in universal combat, where he successfully won the title of champion of Russia, then took first place in Europe, and after the world. Sergey's debut in MMA took place in the Fight Nights Global league, where he was not only undefeated, but also became a champion.

During his performances in the domestic arena, Pavlovich passed such opponents as Alexei Kudin, Magomedbag Agaev, Mikhail Mokhnatkin and others. Yes, and in the west, he managed to achieve good results, and this is taking into account the fact that Sergey practically does not turn to the stalls, but smashes opponents using shock equipment.


Pavlovich has one of the biggest arm spans in the division. And in his case, it's not just numbers - he creates a great combination of speed, agility and great leverage.

A feature of the Russian style is that he skillfully switches between combat modes. With some opponents, Sergey takes a wait-and-see position and works from a distance, without setting accents for a knockout, and with those who give him at least a little space, he can turn on sharply and pull out victories with a frank cutting.

Rostov hits often, serially and does it with good accuracy. At the same time, he always chooses the head as the main goal, devoting a minimum of time to the body and legs. He is able to score points through combinations, and knock out opponents with single punches, so it is very difficult to predict Sergey's actions.


Pavlovich does not use wrestling skills in his performances, and appears before us as an almost pure drummer. He knows how to perform throws, fine-tunes opponents from the mount, but he himself does not have the tools to fight from the back or get out of such positions. And the Russians were brought down by far not the most skillful wrestlers.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Sergey is 30 years old, at the moment he fought back only 5 times in five years, but this is due to the pandemic, and not injuries or demotivation of the athlete. In these confrontations, he lost only to Alistair Overeem in the debut, but on the other hand he passed Kirill Sidelnikov, and under the UFC banner he took off Marcelo Golm, Maurice Green and Shamil Abdurahimov in March 2022. After returning from downtime, he showed excellent shape, did not lose speed and rigidity, which leaves no doubt in one fact - he is a young, gaining momentum heavyweight who is actively trained, and the chance to get into the top five definitely motivates him to reach peak conditions.

Comparative analysis

As in any other weight category, anthropometry and the dimensions of the fighters play a significant role in the heavyweights, especially considering what kind of mass variation is acceptable here. And if the growth of Derrick and Sergey is identical, then in the arm span the Russian is 12 cm ahead (213 cm versus 201 cm), and this gap increases even more due to the weight and speed qualities of the latter, since the American drives up to 120 kg, while while our athlete shows on the scales 115 kg on average. Due to the fact that both heavyweights prefer to fight in the standing position, we note that purely technically, Pavlovich is far ahead of his counterpart.

He is mobile, throws up to 3 times more accented punches, and most importantly, he does it with combinations, with offsets and at different distances. Lewis, on the other hand, needs to get close in order to deliver the most dense hits, therefore he often waits for the enemy to trample on him in order to stun him with an oncoming splash. Only now Sergey does not need to do this - the rich will allow him to hit from a distance, and the footwork will allow him to avoid damage at the moments of his colleague's attacks. That very heavy blow takes place, it can cross out all the advantages of Pavlovich, but, again, for this you need to pinch the Rostovite near the net, which is not easy to do.

If we touch on the issue of the stalls, then Derrick has a lot more options, because even in the fight with Tuivasa he fought, and he is no better and no worse than our athlete on the ground. In any case, as long as the American has the strength, he will remain on his feet and will look for a chance to deliver a blow, and in the context of such a confrontation, Sergei really has a significant advantage in almost all indicators. In addition, he is noticeably more enduring than the veteran.

Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Pavlovich Fight Prediction

To summarise all of the above, here's what we have: Sergei is young, in peak condition, and in many ways superior to his counterpart, even if we disregard the age point. Their overall statistics let us know that it won't last 3 rounds, but it's hard to predict when it will end: Lewis could be knocked out in the first round, but Pavlovic will be knocked out once he gets his breath back and begins to slow down, where his stamina and defensive qualities are reduced to zero. Despite the possibility of a lackepunch, Derrick is too slow for Sergei, and shooting him at long range, waiting for the 'X' hour, he has every chance. For this reason, a bet on his early victory should be worth it. But we can take a chance and bet on the total (Total under 1.5) of the rounds, because the last 5 rounds of his last match resulted in a knock-out in the first leg. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Victory of Sergey Pavlovich / Total under 1.5

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