Forecast for the Vicente Luca vs Michael Chiesa fight

In the UFC welterweight category, a difficult situation has developed: the dominant champion Kamaru Usman does not plan to leave the throne, and there are no new contenders on the horizon yet. For this reason, the title holder has to beat the same opponents in the second round, but in the near future the situation may change.

The Brazilian athlete, Vicente Luce, has come close to the top five, and the last obstacle before getting into the elite list is Michael Chiesa. In the main card of UFC 265, these two will challenge for a place not only in the rating table, but also in the race for the title, so a lot of attention will be focused on their confrontation, especially from the promotion management.

Vicente Luca vs Michael Chiesa

Vicente Luca

The fighter, nicknamed "The Silent Killer", occupies the 6th line of the rating at 77 kg. From an early age, Vicente began to study the basics of percussion techniques in Muay Thai and kickboxing halls, and his Brazilian roots could not leave him indifferent to BZH. Now Luce has reached the level of a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and backed it up with a purple belt in the national Brazilian wrestling Luta Livre Esportiva.

For 5 years, Vicente fought exclusively at home, but after participating in the TUF show, even considering the fight he lost on the project, he was signed to the UFC. In the following years, the athlete showed impressive growth, becoming a first-class drummer and a masterful jitter. With the growth of the level of opposition, Luce has only opened up more, and now he is one of the most promising welterweights of the organization.


Vicente is in the prime of his life, but unlike his colleagues of the same age, he already has almost three dozen professional fights under his belt. In addition to this, his striking technique is honed to perfection, along with a really good fight and BZH. But all this would not be so significant without fizukha, due to which Luke hits hard, keeps a high pace even in the late rounds, and competes on an equal footing with more muscular opponents.


In recent years, only two people have been able to cause Vicente trouble – these are Leon Edwards and Stephen Thompson. These two are masters of fighting in a stand at a safe distance, with great protection from takedowns. It is with such athletes that the Brazilian has difficulties. And the fact that the fighter misses no less often than he gets himself tells us about the need for serious adjustments in the protection of the "Silent Killer".

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Luke is 29 years old, his last fight was 4 months ago, and now the athlete is on a series of three early victories. In the asset of the welterweight, the scalps of ex-champion Tyron Woodley, Randy Brown and Nico Price appeared, and the aforementioned Thompson became the last one who defeated him. Without a doubt, Vicente is at the peak of his form, and with such an arsenal, he will be able to compete with any of the top five.

Vicente Luca vs Michael Chiesa

Michael Chiesa

"Maverick" is on the 5th line of the ratings. Even in college, he won prestigious awards at wrestling competitions, but he did not stop there, switching to BZHJ and boxing. Before switching to welterweight, he was one of the best masters of submishens in 70 kg, and Michael also has a victory on the 15th season of TUF, which he snatched with the help of a reception.

Before his debut in the UFC, Chiesa performed exclusively in local promotions. Going on a record of 6-2, he lost twice and decided to move to 77 kg, where he managed to enter the top, thanks to a successful combination of circumstances – he fought exclusively with veterans who had the status, but did not pose a special threat to the young prospect.


Out of 18 career victories, Michael finished his rivals with submishens 11 times. It is very dangerous at the time of attack and, despite its impressive dimensions, is characterized by plasticity. But for the sake of justice, we note that in the welterweight division, he did not manage to strangle a single opponent.


Interestingly, working from a dominant position, Chiesa can zasabmit anyone, but as soon as he encounters other black belts, or wrestlers who know how to properly control an opponent on the ground, problems begin. The same Anthony Pettis, being not in the best conditions, was able to find an exit to the armbar.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Michael is 33 years old, he has not performed for six months, and at this stage of his career he goes with 4 wins in a row. We can say that this is the best period for all the time of his performances under the auspices of the UFC, but 3 out of 4 victorias, Chiesa got decisions over veterans: Diego Sanchez, Rafael Dos Anos and Neil Magni. Only Carlos Condit, just before retiring for 2 years, got caught on a submissive. In any case, "Maverick" feels great at 77 kg, and you should expect an exceptionally first-class performance from him.

Comparative analysis

Let's start with the analysis of anthropometric indicators: with an identical arm span, Michael has an advantage in height by 5 cm, and has longer legs, which will allow him to better control the distance. Regarding styles, Vicente looks much preferable in this pair, because he has a set shot, he kicks great, but at the same time has everything necessary to prevent Chiesa from dominating the stalls.

The athletes had experience of performing with the TOP opposition, but if you look at their statistics now, then Luce, again, shows great success. Even when meeting with veterans, he finishes them, while Michael spends 3-5 rounds on long-decommissioned fighters. With a two-fold superiority, the Brazilian breaks out ahead in the number of accentuated strokes per minute (5 against 2 for Chiesa), while he is much more accurate, but practically does not conduct takedowns – here the American intercepts the palm of superiority.

Vicente Luca vs Michael Chiesa Fight Prediction

To determine a potential winner, it is enough to refer to dry statistics. Lucke has a lot of experience, is a head taller than his opponent in striking technique, has not lost ahead of schedule for about 8 years, and recently has been showing increasingly dominant performances. The only trump card that Michael can use is BZH, but even here Vicente will be able to resist him with the help of wrestling skills, so only gross mistakes will open up an opportunity for the Maverick to finish. In all other cases, I see the Brazilian as the winner, who will beat his counterpart in the rack, and if necessary, will be able to keep him on the floor, working for points. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Vicente Luca's victory

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