Prediction for the fight Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

After Petr Yan won the UFC title, he was promised many years of reign in the bantamweight division. However, the affairs of the Russian did not go as well as his fans would like, and now "Merciless" has to fight for a place in the TOP-3 weight class, and not count on the championship.

At the UFC Fight Night 221 tournament, he will meet with the Georgian wrestler Merab Dvalishvili, who is climbing the rating table with leaps and bounds. Their fight will take place on March 12 in Las Vegas, and will be a real clash of styles, where everyone has a chance to succeed.

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

Petr Yan

The second number of the top is Peter, as an ex-champion, he will enter the cage as a favorite. Behind him is the belt of the ASV league and the victory in the Grand Prix of the organization, the title of master of sports in boxing and mixed martial arts, as well as the blue belt in BJJ.

In 2021, Yan added an interim UFC lightweight champion belt to his collection, but failed to confirm his leadership status for the second time. Nevertheless, even now his statistics include the big names of defeated veterans, as well as the actual weight tops.


Peter has a complete order with a technical arsenal in the rack, timing, a sense of distance and reaction. He easily works in dynamics, counterattacks well, and most importantly, he hits not only with his hands, using all available leverage on his opponents.

Often, the Siberian is prepared in Thailand, but despite this, it is very good on the ground floor. Muay Thai sweeps and twists help him bring down opponents, and a tight ground and pound, along with good defense against tricks, allow him to compete on the ground floor with the most dangerous parterists in the division.

Despite the role of such a “gopnik”, Peter is a thinking fighter, and he devotes a considerable part of his time in the cage to reconnaissance and assessing the enemy’s reactions to his actions. After that, regardless of the number of rounds, "Merciless" is ready to put pressure on the opponent in endless series, literally not letting him breathe.


In the last two fights, Jan's strategy, which worked for many years, frankly, failed. He joined the fights late, stopped seizing the initiative in a timely manner, giving it to the opponent, and even ran out of steam, although he was always famous for his cardio. Problems with motivation or physical decline? What happens to the ex-champion, we will find out in the next fight.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Peter is only 30 years old, and now there is no reason to believe that he will rapidly begin to lose ground. Most likely, problems in extreme fights are connected with some mental moments. Three defeats in 5 appearances, two against Aljamain Sterling and one against Sean O'Malley, doesn't change the fact that Ian has beaten Jose Aldo and Corey Sandhagen in a confident manner. Sufficient time to prepare and work on the bugs should return "No Mercy" to its previous state.

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili

Merab closes the top three in the bantamweight division. Classes in traditional Georgian wrestling, judo (black belt) and sambo, allowed him to confidently perform in the categories up to 61 and 66 kg. The athlete became the champion of the Ring of Combat league, and for a long time was in the shadows.

Failures in two debut fights under the banner of the UFC almost left Dvalishvili without a contract, but he pulled himself together and gave out a chic series of victories, having dealt with a number of top opponents. The rate of progress of the Merab level is impressive and I would like to believe that he will still show himself in the camp of the elite.


The technique of the Georgian fighter is completely tied to the fight: moving towards the enemy, passing, which may be preceded by 2-3 sweeping blows and holding positions. He periodically dilutes it with ground and pound, however, takedown spam and positional struggle near the net are the chips due to which Merab disarms opponents.

Dvalishvili does not need reconnaissance, warming up and other paraphernalia - he goes forward immediately, without fear of damage or fatigue. By the way, at a distance of 3 rounds, he still had no problems with cardio.


In the last match, it became clear that Merab, even with corner prompts, does not know how to switch to other rails. He just puts pressure, but if the opponent is defending from transfers, he can offer nothing but dry control at the net, even without striking.

Even though Dvalishvili is at the top, his striking skills do not match those of the basic strikers of the regional leagues. Low accuracy, predictability and amplitude of punches do not allow him to work in the rack, without mixing combinations with further transfers. Although, once a year the stick shoots - Moraes will not let you lie.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Merab, 32, has not competed since August 2022 and is now on an 8-win streak. This record includes such names as Jose Aldo, Cody Stamann, Marlon Moraes, John Dodson and other strong fighters. Dvalishvili is gradually adding BJJ and grappling to his wrestling, but it is too early to talk about success in these areas - he has not yet received victories in the UFC by submissions. However, it is solely due to his skills on the ground that he has to be reckoned with, because he does his job perfectly well.

Comparative analysis

In the aspect of anthropometry, equality can be set between the fighters - in terms of growth, Yang is 3.5 cm ahead, in terms of arm span - Merab, by 2.5 cm. Actually, these indicators would not play a big role anyway, given that athletes are dangerous each for a friend in completely different planes. Obviously, Dvalishvili will not even come close to a duel with Peter on his hands and feet - the Russian is several steps better than him not only in the technique itself, but also in speed, as well as in distance control.

Wrestling skills, and we are talking exclusively about translation and control on the ground, go to Merab's piggy bank. If he manages to bring down the Merciless throughout all the rounds, and especially at the beginning, when he gains momentum, it is quite possible that the judges will give him 3 rounds out of 5, and this is not an exaggeration. But, Jan has very good protection against transfers, and the same Aldo showed that even without responding to captures in any way (meaning strikes and counterattacks), one can be near the net without receiving significant damage.

Less than half of the takedowns performed by the Georgian fighter are effective. He spams them, leaving no operational space for his counterpart, but unlike his Brazilian colleague, Petr will definitely snap, because he himself feels good when he is on top, and from the back he easily defends himself from tricks. Obviously, this time Jan will have to join the fight much earlier and, I would like to believe that the distance of 5 rounds will play into his hands. The main thing is that the takedown spam does not tire him ahead of time, as happened in the rematch with Aljamain.

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili Prediction

Technically and tactically, Peter is a stronger athlete, but he left a number of questions after 2 extreme performances, which make him doubt his unconditional success. Merab can really deprive him of the opportunity to act even as the second number, but at the same time, we never saw Dvalishvili in the 4th round, where Jan, just the same, reveals his potential.

Despite many “buts”, there is practically no doubt that we will see the championship five-minutes, since there were very few early finishes in the Russian career, and Dvalishvili did not concede ahead of schedule at all, although he fell into knockdowns. Therefore, first of all, it is worth considering the option of betting on the duration of the meeting, starting from total over (3.5) and above, and after betting on the favorite, which, as mentioned above, in all aspects, except for a dry fight, looks preferable. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Petr Yan / total over (3.5) win by rounds.

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