Prediction for the fight Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan

In March last year, one of the most promising UFC bantamweights from the United States, Aljamain Sterling, was brought into the octagon with the first Russian champion of this category, Petr Yan. The Funk Mastera fight was supposed to be the perfect weapon against the universal from Yekaterinburg, but that fight turned out to be one-sided, and the challenger had no choice but to accept a bitter defeat.

Only now, a mistake on the part of Jan set off such a wave of events that their non-competitive confrontation grew into the most anticipated revenge of 2022. At UFC 273, as the co-main event of the evening, the two will finally decide the fate of the title, which, due to an illegal knee strike, accidentally ended up with an unworthy candidate. Who will lead the division up to 61 kg on April 10? A detailed analysis and clear analytics will help us understand this issue, so let's get started.

Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan

Aljamain Sterling

The champion is not by right, but by chance, has extensive experience in wrestling mat performances. He was a two-time All American in the NCAA Division III, and thanks to his ground skills, he made a successful debut in mixed martial arts. He has belts of organizations ROC, CFFC with three defenses, as well as the main UFC trophy, however, it is not possible to say that Aljamain “won” him, because Petr Yan gave him, and did not lose in a tough fight.

During his time in the big leagues, Sterling went over a number of veterans, including ex-champ Renan Barao, Jimmy Rivera, Cody Stamann and other guys. Although in 2016-2017, "Funk Master" managed to pick up defeats, first losing by separate decisions to Misha Tate's lover - Brian Kerevey, Brazilian Rafael Assuncao, and then by a fleeting knockout to Marlon Moraes.


There are no questions about Aljo's wrestling technique, he is technical, confidently holds positions, even if he does not transfer the opposition to the ground floor very well. But his jiu-jitsu looks much more intimidating, because the champion immediately goes to the choke, does it by force, tightly clinging to the victim.

In the work of the first number, Sterling, like any basic wrestler, is a particular danger. He misses little, quickly closes the distance and feels at ease in close combat. By the way, the champion cannot be called a striker, however, the total amount of work performed by him makes the opponents mainly defend, without developing their own offensive actions.


"Funk Master" has repeatedly covered the full 3-round distance, so he has no questions about fights of such duration. But in more protracted battles, especially if he fails to develop success and act as the first number, Aljamain looks faded. Neither physics nor technique saves him there, since the athlete is used to winning quickly, or doing it in a dominant manner without active resistance.

It would be strange to demand a good level of boxing from a wrestler, but let's not deceive ourselves - at this level you must be an all-rounder. The American throws a lot of punches, but only half of them reach the target, and the density of hits leaves much to be desired, because he could not send a single opponent into a dead knockout.

More than a year has passed since the first fight with Jan, and during this period, Sterling survived the operation, recovered for a long time, started a training camp and filmed from it, survived the bullying on social networks. He lost to the Russian, therefore he clearly understands that the upcoming fight will be very difficult, and he will play the role of a victim there.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Aljamain is 32 years old, his asset consists of 5 victories and an opponent won by disqualification in a title fight. A quick victory over Cory Sandhagen, confident triumphs in fights with Pedro Munoz and Jimmy Rivera indicate that Sterling takes his place for a reason, but a long rest, and a frankly weak performance against Petr Yan, draws a whole train of questions. How well the rusty champion will show himself, and whether he could actually overcome the uncertainty in superiority over the Russian, we will see only in the battle itself.

Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan

Petr Yan

Our athlete is the interim UFC bantamweight champion - he won this title in a fight with Corey Sandhagen. In addition, on account of Peter there are belts of the winner of the Grand Prix of the DIA, the champion of this organization, as well as the title of the undisputed ex-champion of the major league. Yang has reached the level of master of sports in boxing and MMA, adding a blue belt in BJJ to this list.

During the performances in the domestic arena, "No Mercy" went through a series of confrontations with a worthy opposition, the level of the same Magomed Magomedov. Having moved across the ocean, he did not lose face by moving the former tops: John Dodson, Jimmy Rivera and Douglas Silva De Andrade. Now, the representative of Yekaterinburg, is in the TOP-10 of the P4P rating, and is preparing to lead the UFC division up to 61 kg again.


Peter's strategy in battles is very interesting: he allocates up to 10 minutes to study the situation, he can deliberately concede in individual episodes, giving up rounds, and give the opponent room to maneuver. However, at the snap of a finger, all this is replaced by irresistible pressure, an abundance of attacks and a crazy pace, which, against the background of the past calm, breaks the foundations of the counterpart, along with his mental state.

Jan has some of the best transfer efficiency and focus in the division. As for a basic boxer, he works great with his feet, does sweeps, superbly turns off the opponent's limbs in the ground, and in general, he is an all-rounder who has practically no weaknesses.

Raised hands, perfect reaction and footwork, allow Peter to get out of difficult situations without significant damage. But the main thing here is that, even when defending himself, he finds a moment to strike back, which is part of the overall picture of his defensive system.

It's impossible to get into this guy's head. He perceives any words and actions before the battle with an absolutely indifferent face, however, he himself perfectly parries and throws in tenacious phrases, studying the habits and reactions of his counterpart. To the same Sterling at the battle of views, Jan pointed out that he was trembling - such "chips" are used by gopniks on the street, but they work great and make the one standing opposite make excuses.


Each fighter has flaws, because it is impossible to be perfect. They are also present in Peter, but so far only a few have been able to reveal them. He struggles with elite level wrestlers who are not only good at defending against takedowns, but are themselves comparable to a pushing tank that is almost impossible to get out of. And when Jan is pressed, while maintaining a high pace over a long distance, he simply does not have time to accelerate and turn the tide of the fight. Simply put, the athlete must be a mirror image of Peter himself in order to cause him serious problems.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Yan is 29 years old, and if not for the disqualification in the confrontation with Sterling, his winning streak would have consisted of 12 performances. Victoria over Sandhagen, Jose Aldo, Juraj Faber, and in fact over Aljamain, who merged the meeting into one gate, proved that the peak Peter is an unattainable level for the current top of the UFC's lightest weight category. The Russian is charged to win, he knows how to fight the champion, so we expect him to have a flawless fight with a positive final result.

Comparative analysis

Let's start with the fact that the current champion has certain advantages in size and anthropometry. He's more muscular, rides significantly more weight, and for the same height can offer the interim champ long leverage due to a 10cm reach advantage. Will that play a role given that Sterling is a wrestler and Ian is a boxer? Based on the past battle, no, because neither in accuracy nor in the number of blows thrown, the American overtakes the Russian, and his distance control is lame.

If Peter moves forward all the time, cuts corners, feeds the opponent with kicks and strikes on the middle and upper floors, then Aljamain prefers to stand in a wide stance, exposing his legs for sweeps with low kicks, and scaring his counterparts with denoting punches, explodes with takedowns, or enters clinches, from where the dragging continues onto the canvas. Such a strategy in his execution did not work last time, therefore, it is not necessary to count on the fact that this meeting will be held according to an identical scenario. Of course, Sterling will not be able to escalate in exchanges, because there his chances, with such and such a percentage of finishes through strikes, are low, but to try to dry the fight and hope that Jan’s excellent defense against transfers will misfire, he is quite maybe.

But be that as it may, it is difficult to believe in the dominant performance of the American, even if he ends up on top on the ground. Piotr is very good defensively and needs to make a big mistake to get caught. And the cardio "Funk Master", with its power struggle, does not guarantee the successful course of the "operation" for more than 2-3 rounds. Simply put, the exposed weaknesses of Aljamain in the last meeting, taking into account the simple and other variables, do not allow us to make a consolatory forecast in his favor.

Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan Fight Prediction

The disappointing odds, the failed first fight, the 13 months of 'rest' and many other factors do not play into Aljamein Sterling's hands. He is a really good wrestler and sub master, he is able to set up an upsets in the first minutes while Jan is warming up, but the odds are so low that it would be unwise to bet on that. If we're not optimistic about the odds on Petr either, we have a few options in the form of betting on the duration of the match. Obviously, it's not going to be over quickly unless one of the participants gets injured in the octagon. So, at the very least, the options of Total over 1.5 and 2.5 look more than attractive. It looks more likely that Jan will be able to secure a win by judges' decision or finish in the late 4th, early 5th round, which means that the most desperate of fans have a chance to drum up some interest by bidding for an early victory for the Russian. Download 1xbet to your phone and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Petr Yan to win/Total over 1.5, Total over 2.5

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