Prediction for the fight Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira

The difficult story of Charles Oliveira, not only in the UFC, but also outside the octagon, continued for him even when, it would seem, he climbed to the very top. Due to a slight advantage, the Brazilian was stripped of the champion title, and now he has to fight again for the gold of the top MMA league on the planet. Already on October 22 in Abu Dhabi, the UFC 280 tournament will be headed by his duel against Islam Makhachev.

The styles of these fighters will be a great help in order to identify not only the best lightweight on the planet, but also close the question of what is still more effective: jiu-jitsu or Dagestani wrestling? The match is going to be loud and definitely tense, however, by analyzing the capabilities of its participants, we will identify the fighter who has the greatest chance of winning.

Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira

Islam Makhachev

The Russian is ranked 4th in the lightweight rankings. Before us is a master of sports of international class in combat sambo, the champion of Russia, and also the winner of the World Championship in this discipline in the category up to 74 kg. Islam's unique wrestling skills allowed him to deal not only with the top opposition of major Russian MMA promotions, but also show a decent level in the UFC. At this point, Makhachev hasn't dealt with current top-five fighters, however, his dominating performances speak for themselves.


Despite the fact that few people consider Islam as a striker, his skills in the stand are at a very good level. The jab, due to which he perfectly keeps his distance, as well as the deuce are the tools with which the Russian does not allow skillful strikers to reveal themselves to the fullest.

Islam's conceding record is among the best in the division. He is incredibly good in defense, including takedowns from opponents, and most importantly, no one has yet been able to throw a tight hold on him, which will play a key role in the upcoming fight.

There are no questions about Makhachev's wrestling skills, he trains with the best and shows the appropriate result. But, here we are also talking about high-class attacking grappling, which in general gives him the opportunity to win ahead of schedule and leave the battle clean.


All the advantages of Islam, although not everyone understands this, can be called into question due to the lack of fights with guys from the top of the rating, which was previously mentioned. Against the background of the middle peasants, he looks perfect, but how things will go in a fight with an experienced lightweight is an open question.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

By the time of the fight, Makhachev will be 31 years old, and now he is on a series of 10 victories. Definitely, in physical and technical terms, Islam is at its peak, because in 5 extreme fights he gave 4 early victories over Bobby Green, Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises and Drew Dobber. 8 months have passed since the last performance of the Russian, so we are waiting for him in perfect shape, recovered and, as always, cool-headed.

Charles Oliveira

For the Brazilian, this will be his 43rd professional fight, and many have forgotten that Charles is a true veteran of the league. He is not only an ex-champion, but also the record holder for several achievements in the UFC: the largest number of submission victories and early victories, as such, the largest number of bonuses earned, and so on. In addition, Oliveira has a 3rd dan black belt in BJJ, and seriously practices Muay Thai in the octagon, becoming one of the most dangerous strikers in the division.


Twenty-one times "Do Bronx" defeated his opponents by submission. And if earlier he pulled the opposition to the ground, like a typical jitser, now he does it not only through passes to the legs and sweeps, but also through knockdowns. Further, everything was worked out to automatism, units managed to get out of its capture.

Charles' mental stability is impressive. Despite the endless talk about his mental weakness, after knockdowns and frankly lost rounds, he always comes back and wins. And sometimes even uses it to lure counterparts into a trap.

Oliveira's rivals have repeatedly noticed that he hits not so much hard as accurately and unexpectedly. Hidden hooks, combination work, and the ex-champ's timing disarm even the most formidable lightweight strikers.

One significant strength of the Brazilian, which underpins all the others, is the ability to learn and the desire to become better even after many years in the business. This in many ways distinguishes him from his colleagues.


Experts complain about how Charles misses blows, doing it from time to time. But few people focus on the fact that he has serious vision problems that prevent him from fully feeling the situation in the fight. Although, so far, this guy's chin does not send critical signals to the brain so that it turns off consciousness completely.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Less than a week before the fight, Oliveira will turn 33 years old. On account of his 11 victories in a row, in extreme performances he finished such monsters as Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Charles has reached some new level in terms of technical skills, and a short break between fights will allow him to stay in good shape. We expect the Brazilian to be especially ready for this confrontation, especially since he is an underdog in it, and this has always spurred Do Bronx.

Comparative analysis

According to the classics, let's start with an assessment of anthropometry: with identical height, Oliveira is ahead by 9 cm in arm span, which, with his Muay Thai skills, will definitely bear fruit. Charles kicks a lot more often, and also uses his own preparations, connecting elbows, backfists and other counters to break the pace of the fight. Obviously, Makhachev will look limited against his background, however, the Russian's achievements are also effective, and his phenomenal defense will force the opponent to take risks and get closer.

Regarding the ground level of both athletes, the controversy does not fade away, but in my opinion, Oliveira will definitely be more sophisticated in holding receptions and getting them, while Islam will look more profitable in terms of position control and work from above. And here we take into account far from the best percentage of Charles' protection from transfers, so our fighter has every chance to gain a foothold in an advantageous position, set up defense and systematically handle the enemy in the ground and pound.

In the overall standings, the stand-up fight deservedly goes in favor of Oliveira, but on the ground they pose the same danger to each other. But the former champion has not yet taken victories in fights 5 rounds long (meaning by the decision of the judges), which is why there are questions about his functionality, but Makhachev did not fight with guys of the same level. So, the effect of surprise, moreover, in any direction, must also be taken into account.

Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira Fight Prediction

This clash is of maddening interest in that the odds are stacked against everyone, despite the odds. And given the way these athletes fight, there's a good chance that their encounter won't go the full distance. Oliveira always tends to catch his opponents at the smallest mistakes, while Makhachev creates all conditions for them to panic and stumble, even in comfortable positions. Nevertheless, there is a favourite here, and to my mind he deserves it. Islam is unshakable, flawless in defence and fearsome in attack. His technical arsenal may be inferior to Charles in variety, but certainly not in efficiency. Competent groundwork and unhurried analysis of his opponent from round to round should lead the Russian to that decisive moment. The only important thing is not to make a fatal mistake, which will turn the course of the fight. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Islam Makhachev's victory

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