Prediction for Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje

The UFC lightweight division has always been filled with talented athletes, and even after the departure of such stars as Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov, although the story is not over with the first, we continue to be intrigued by the most interesting fights. The next champion from Brazil, Charles Oliveira, having come a long way to the top, will make his second title defense against Justin Gaethje on May 8 in the main fight at UFC 274.

Once again, we will witness a clash of styles, where the crazy “Highlight” will try to disarm the cunning native of Sao Paulo with his pressure. In this fight, the result can be the most unpredictable, despite the quotes and opinions of other fighters, so before drawing any conclusions, you should focus on in-depth analysis and the real balance of power in such a competitive fight.

Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje

Charles Oliveira

The reigning champion has been fighting for recognition for a long time, and this is provided that he has 18 bonuses for the best fights and submissions (for a second - this is a UFC record) and the most wins by submission (15 times his opponents knocked in surrender). Charles holds a black belt (3 dan) in BJJ, is the winner of the PFC Grand Prix in 77 kg, and also has one of the longest winning streaks in the division.

If Oliveira was previously perceived as an athlete from the back of the ratings, now he shows a tremendous increase in skills from fight to fight. Thanks to this, the Brazilian moved from victories over experienced veterans to triumphs in fights with the lightweight elite, cracking down on each of them in a dominant manner. That is why in the coming battle he is a well-deserved favorite.


Charles has long ceased to be a typical representative of the Brazilian BJJ. He does not fall on his back, as is customary among his associates, but uses a symbiosis of an attacking wrestling style, ground and pound and classic jiu-jitsu, creating problems for both freestyle wrestlers and his colleagues with black belts. Giving back to this guy is forbidden, because getting out of his grip is almost impossible.

Boxing from "do Bronx" is a separate art form. The same Chandler withstood 3 rounds of bombing from Geydzhi, but only one hit by Oliveira led him to defeat. Hooks and uppercuts "short" flying along a non-standard trajectory fly right at the target below the field of view of the counterpart, and natural power allows you to pierce strong chins of opponents even with a minimal swing.

Another formidable weapon of the champion is the clinch, and there he will feed everyone with his knees and elbows to his heart's content. His capture was a problem for Poirier, who is very good at close combat, because hugs with Charles can deprive the opponent not only of even breathing, but also dry out the liver and ribs.

Not everyone focuses on how Oliveira controls the distance with kicks. Frontal punches, lowkicks, and knees after getting close break the pace of the fight and do not give opponents the opportunity to properly aim, charging for a blow.


"You have no idea how I would fight if I had 100% vision." By putting on glasses after each victory, the Brazilian gets the opportunity to see everything like an ordinary person. Before that, in the octagon everything is cloudy for him. From there, the problems with the defense stretch, because in almost every fight Charles misses a blow and falls. His jaw can withstand the onslaught, his brain does not turn off consciousness, but how long will this last? He definitely needs to work on protecting his head, because one day a stray unnoticed blow will do its dirty work.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Champion in his prime - he is 32 years old, he is on a series of 10 victories, and 9 of them were obtained by finishes. In the last 3 meetings, Oliveira defeated real monsters: Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier (December 2021), and his last defeat dates back to 2017. At the moment, "do Bronx" is at its peak, his body is young, and his mind is ready to learn how to improve his technique in all components. Therefore, we expect top-level readiness from the Brazilian.

Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje

You can't tell from Highlight's performances that he was one of the most successful AIA Division 1 wrestlers, became an All-American in 2010 and took first place at the state championships several times. Justin held the WSOF belt for a long time, repeatedly won awards for breakthroughs of the year, knockouts and so on. Also, in his collection are a number of UFC bonuses, the title of a former interim champion, and one unsuccessful attempt to win the title of the undisputed major league champion.

Gagey started with very difficult fights against the tops - Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez made many experts doubt the authenticity of the hype that reigned around the American. But then the competent work of the matchmakers made it possible to turn the situation around and, having beaten the opposition at a lower level, Justin adapted to the UFC, greatly changing his opinion about his prospects in the league.


Killing yourself is Geiji's main task in battle. He himself receives colossal damage, and deprives the health of his opponents. Exchanges became his element, and even a “smart fight” with Ferguson did not make him change tactics in the future. And what is there to hide - it works, because there are only a few tough guys like him.

Despite hundreds of hits, Highlight's head is ready to take the hardest hits, and most importantly, he still has the ability to quickly recover from knockdowns. And we are not talking about slowing down in order to protect ourselves, but about the full continuation of the fight, as if nothing had happened.

Even the most avid lightweight strikers don't use the low as much to immobilize the opposition. The challenger does not just beat them to indicate the distance, but purposefully breaks the legs of the enemy, and most importantly, they decide by opening up space for him to operate.

Justin landed accurate shots every 8.5 seconds on average. The pressure on his part does not stop for a moment, and due to physical power, even the simplest jab causes a lot of trouble, because those who are used to working as the first number have to arrange a bone-to-bone fight with him.


Prior to the fight with Nurmagomedov, Geydzhi's coaching staff ensured that the level of his struggle was enough to, at a minimum, defend himself against transfers. As it turned out, this had nothing to do with reality, and when was the last time Justin fought in the octagon? Training is training, and using the ground in a real fight is much more important.

Looking at Highlight's past experience, one gets the impression that not only does he have dubious defense against submissions, but he himself makes a lot of mistakes, driving himself into traps. Such carelessness can cost him dearly in the upcoming fight.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

For Justin, 33, this is most likely his last title run. In the last 5 fights, he lost only one fight - Khabib Nurmagomedov, and with Michael Chandler, Tony Ferguson, Donald Serone and Edson Barboza, he gave out the brightest fights, where he won. There is no reason to doubt that Gaethje is now at the peak, but his technical development, as practice shows, stopped after meeting with El Cucuy.

Comparative analysis

Following the traditions, let's start with anthropometry: Geydzhi takes the lead in terms of height - he is 2.5 cm taller than the champion, but in terms of arm span he is 10 centimeters inferior to him. In terms of overall dimensions and muscle mass, the Brazilian will look preferable, because he is noticeably drier and slightly larger than his opponent. Touching on the style, we can talk about two completely different characters. If Justin was once engaged in wrestling and moved away from the base for the sake of striking technique, then Charles not only pumped the stalls all this time, but also tirelessly grew as a striker.

Most likely, he will not be able to kill Gagey, the American is too sophisticated in cutting and grinding opponents, but the same clinches, and everything that concerns the stalls, goes into the champion's piggy bank. At the start of the fight, "Highlight" can cut off maximum resources, beat off the legs of the Brazilian and rush forward with attacks, in which case the lined "do Bronx" risks being knocked out. However, the implementation of this plan may fail, because Oliveira knows how to knit an aggressor and survive in critical situations like no other.

A different alignment awaits us if Justin takes a wait-and-see attitude and starts shooting from a distance - the favorite's takedowns will not pose a significant threat while the challenger is fresh, and to compete with him in boxing is not a good idea. And, nevertheless, Charles's tenacity, his vision of ideal moments for rapprochement, Thai clinch and unconditional superiority on the ground, deprive Gaethje of many options and, in fact, apart from the stand, he will have nothing to offer the enemy, even in terms of endurance. Therefore, the game plan, a cold mind and the ability to analyze the situation of each of the participants will play a huge role, given the presence of "lethal weapons" for both.

Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje Fight Prediction

The perfect showdown story: two top lightweights, both in perfect shape, motivated and ready for war, what could be better? There is no doubt that one of the guys will be delayed - the statistics say that a knockout or submission is inevitable here. But who will be stronger? If you use dry facts, then Charles is corny more universal, and he has much more leverage on Justin. There is a chance of an early knockout within 1-1.5 rounds from Geydzhi, if before that moment they do not get close and do not end up on the ground. In all other scenarios, Oliveira will hook, knock down, go behind his back, and then throw his arms around the applicant's neck. With a greater degree of probability, it is the submission that will be the finale of this confrontation. But, as an option, you can use a bet on an early victory by any of the participants. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Charles Oliveira to win/Stop the fight

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