Movement towards the average in sports betting

As practice shows, the law of conservation of energy works well in betting. If it is spent more in one place, less in another. This also applies to sports. If the team has given all the best in a certain part of the season, then a decline will definitely begin in the future. In other words, regression to the mean will begin. What it is and how to use it when betting at bookmakers will be considered as part of the review.

• Relationship between potential and average indicators
• How to calculate regression to the mean?
• The nuances of the calculation
• Summing up

Relationship between potential and average indicators

Each club and athlete has a certain potential that determines its level of performance over one or more seasons. For example, a football club is able to score about 60 points. He has a good set of performers, an experienced coach, excellent support from the stands. 60 points is his average. But in the first round, such a club scored 25 points. It turns out that in the second half of the championship he is obliged to put 35 points into his piggy bank, so we should expect an increase in the quality of the game and frequent positive results.

There are many such situations in any sport. Many teams start well, but then slow down the pace of the game. Why? There was not enough potential to perform powerfully throughout the season. Often there is a situation when the team started poorly, but then added. Once again, the club's potential allowed us to increase momentum and get closer to our average and gain points.

The main task of the bettor is to calculate the potential of the team (athlete), his possible average and wait until there is a strong deviation from him in one direction

This approach will allow you to make frequent prospective bets. It remains to find out how to do it.

How to calculate regression to the mean?

Let's look at a few examples.

An incidental case occurred in the football championship of Belarus in 2020, when after the 7th round the standings were headed by Slutsk, which scored 16 points out of 18. Local bettors knew that this club was among the outsiders of the league and did not have high potential. Slutsk had serious financial problems: the players were not paid salaries for several months, there was a high threat of bankruptcy and removal from the championship. Such a team had to fight hard for survival, not fight for medals. It is clear that at the beginning of the season there was a sharp deviation from the average. And now it's worth looking at the location of the team at the end of the championship.

Slutsk took 14th place, scoring 11 points in the next 23 rounds. Belarusian bettors knew the potential of the considered team and understood that after a quick start there would be a strong decline, which made it possible to bet promisingly against an outsider, loading the negative handicap of his rivals. But the specialists of the bookmaker, seeing such a frisky start of the club in a little-known championship, overestimated the quotes for the success of Slutsk, which often made it possible to play for money.

Now we can consider a vivid example from the German Bundesliga.

Leipzig finished the first round of the 2021/22 season in 10th place with 22 points out of 51. This club was one of the main contenders for the championship medals and such a low position in the standings after round 17 was a strong deviation from its average value. All this was seen by the leadership, inviting the talented Tedesco to the position of head coach. It is worth looking at where Leipzig ended the season.

Tedesco led the team to fourth position, which allows them to play in the Champions League. In the 2nd round, the club scored 35 points, achieving frequent positive results. In parallel, Leipzig won the German Cup.
Bundesliga-savvy bettors saw Leipzig's strong deviation from their average. They knew the potential of the German club and when they heard that Tedesco was invited to the position of the main helmsman, they expected a stronger performance in the 2nd round. This actually happened.
In almost every championship within any team sport, one of the teams can be observed to deviate from their average and then move towards it. In order to find such a movement and start placing promising bets on its basis, the bettor must carry out laborious analytical work before the start of the season - to study the potential of each championship team, in particular:

• The results of the transfer campaign: which players left, came to replace them;
• Changes on the coaching bridge;
• The procedure for preparing the team for the championship: which opponents were rivals (their level), played tactical schemes;
• The financial condition of the club. Often in the off-season or during the tournament, the club falls into a severe financial crisis. There is a reverse situation - a rich sponsor came, which made it possible to acquire strong players. All this changes the potential of the team and its average value.

In the future, you need to follow the course of the tournament, looking for important nuances.

The nuances of the calculation

Sometimes moving towards the mean is not possible for several reasons.

• Sale of important players in order to obtain high profits. This is a characteristic feature for strong middle peasants who "shot" in one of the seasons and became one of the leaders of their country. This result increases the value of the players, the sale of which brings huge money for a club that is not among the top ones. The departure of fundamental players without the arrival of other strong players reduces the potential of the team. In such a situation, it is difficult to understand what the club is capable of in the new season. Many expect last year's result, but in reality the club is far from the same;
• Participation in European competitions. Sometimes the middle peasants make their way to the European Cup zone and reach the group stage next season. It is difficult for such a club to perform normally on 2 football fronts. This does not allow you to correctly assess what result he is able to demonstrate in the national championship.

The two points discussed above appeared in the framework of "Lille". This French club became the champion of the country in the 2020/21 season. After that, the club's management sold several leaders in order to make a huge profit. In parallel, Lille took part in the group stage of the Champions League, even making it to the 1/8 finals. The sale of leaders and participation in European competitions crumpled Lille's performance in the national championship, which the Great Danes completely failed.

The club took 10th place. Anyone who thought that after a disastrous start Lille would definitely score in the future, they say, the team is behind its average, was mistaken. Such a miscalculation can cost part of the bank's money.
Rookies often base their picks on last year's team results. They saw that Lille became the champion and expect that this football team will again show a high result in the new season. But the reasons disclosed above did not allow him to do this. This alignment was seen by experienced bettors and made promising bets, playing against Lille on the side of its rivals. The newcomers failed to calculate the updated potential of the team and its new average, which is why they lost money.

• Injuries. It is necessary to adjust the potential of the team, taking into account the serious injuries of its fundamental players. A striking example is the English Leicester of the 2021/22 season. The club played badly in 1 lap. Then it seemed that the "foxes" would pick up the pace and get "their" points. But at the start of the 2nd lap, the leader of the attacks and the "soul" of the Vardy team received a serious injury. He entered the field at the end of the season. This injury severely crippled the potential of the team, which affected the performance of Leicester, who never got "their" points.

It's worth taking a look at another image.

Once Vardy recovered from his injury and started scoring goals, Leicester have scored 10 points in their last four games. But it was too late.

• There was no active transfer campaign. The club achieved a high result and the management decided to keep the base intact without acquiring new players. This is a gross mistake. There is such a thing as "fresh blood". Beginners intensify competition, the old players are again forced to fight for a place at the base. Such a struggle makes the athletes give all the best for 200%, which maintains a high level of play of the entire team. If the influx of "fresh blood" did not occur, the players relax, which lowers its real potential. With this approach, the club shows the worst results compared to the previous season. Top teams often step on such a “rake” when their management wants to save money, but as a result loses even more.

All these nuances must be monitored and, taking into account them, adjust the betting strategy.

Summing up

The “moving to the mean” strategy is promising in the long run. When it is clear that the club will clearly slow down or add powerfully, you can make promising bets based on such foresight. It is clear that not all bets will be profitable. But they will win more often and in total will lead to a plus. But it must be taken into account that the success of the disclosed theory depends on the quality of the analytical work carried out before the start of the season and during it. Download 1xbet to your phone and place a bet on the favorite!