Prediction for the fight Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Eliseu Zaleski dos Santos

Russian welterweight, Abubakar Nurmagomedov, has appeared so rarely in the UFC octagon that many began to forget about his existence in the league roster. Having entered the winning path, he, apparently, is gradually gaining momentum, and already on June 4, at the UFC on ESPN 46 tournament, he will clash with the Brazilian puncher, Eliseu Zaleski dos Santos. The meeting promises to be very interesting, given the styles of the fighters, which gives them almost equal chances for victory. But is it really so?

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Eliseu Zaleski dos Santos

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The athlete enters only the 4th fight in the UFC (2-1), before having made his career in the popular WSOF promotion. Abubakar held the title of Russian champion in combat sambo, and also entered the top three in the world championship. In addition, in 2018, Nurmagomedov was a participant in the PFL Grand Prix, but an injury prevented him from advancing beyond the quarterfinals.


Abubakar extracts most of the dividends at close range and on the ground. He skillfully meets attacking opposition with counter passes to the body, defends well against takedowns, and also shows himself well in ground and pound. This is a worthy wagon, recently showing some progress, which has long been expected from him.


Despite his age, Nurmagomedov still cannot boast of fights with top opponents, and the lack of such experience is clearly reflected in the mistakes he makes. Noticeable holes in the stance, missteps in the fight against skill partners, as well as omissions in preparation - randomly sagging cardio, repeatedly led him to very dangerous situations. But he is actively working on all this.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Abubakar is 33 years old and is on a 2-game win streak with a 3-1-1 record in recent matches. David Zavada, became the only one who finished it in the last 5 years in sports, and with Bojan Velickovic they brought the fight to a draw. Victories over Jonatham Westin, Jared Gooden and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, again, only confirm the fact that Nurmagomedov was greatly delayed in his promotion through the ratings. However, about 7 months of recovery and preparation should play into his hands, in a fight with an older counterpart, after a downtime.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Eliseu Zaleski dos Santos

Eliseu Zaleski dos Santos

Despite not being the most widely known, Elizeu has been performing under the auspices of the UFC for eight years, having 12 fights behind him. The Brazilian was the champion of the Jungle Fight home promotion, became the finalist of the Smash Fight tournament, and also has a black belt in BJJ and capoeira. However, dos Santos uses Thai boxing as a base, due to which he repeatedly obtained beautiful victories with finishes.


Eliseu is very good in the middle-close distance in the work of the first number. He does not hesitate to go into exchanges, press the opponent, break in clinches, and also feint. Jump knees, turntables and other surprises are not uncommon in his performance. The Brazilian handles the beaten opponents well on the ground as well, since his BJJ is at a very solid level.


The classic problem of the jitters is the big marriage in takedowns, which also haunts Zaleski dos Santos. According to statistics, only 15% of all attempts to knock down counterparts are successful. Yes, and in terms of defense, there are also questions for him, although to a greater extent he takes on the missed blows in the heat of attack, following the enemy with his hands down.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Elizeu is an age-old athlete, he is already 36 years old, and for the last 19 months he has not appeared in the octagon. Such a downtime will definitely affect his condition, even though in the last five matches, he has a positive score of 3-2. He was inferior to confident middle peasants, like Lee Jingliang and Muslim Salikhov, but he managed to overcome Curtis Millender, Alexei Kunchenko and Benoit Saint-Denis with decisions and even tricks. However, the level of his opposition, as well as the lack of data on his current state of health, do not inspire much hope for his return.

Comparative analysis

In anthropometry, the fighters have complete parity - 180 cm in height and 185 cm in arm span for both. But, alas, we will not be able to talk about the same equality in skills. Elizeu's base is striking techniques, and in the stand he is a couple of steps better than Abubakar, and besides, he acts much more aggressively, using the widest range of all kinds of techniques. Remarkably, he only pierces 61% of the total number of blows to the head, so the Russian will have a very difficult time, being distracted by the defense of all floors, especially during rapprochements. A worthy answer to all this is control on the ground, and Nurmagomedov has options on how to drag the Brazilian to the ground floor.

Dos Santos often goes to the enemy, almost without thinking about defense, and open legs and body are the main goal of Abubakar. He instantly changes the tier of attack, going for a takedown, after which he develops success, improves his position and begins to break the enemy. BJJ Elizeu will not be easy for him to handle, but it is much better than trying to compete with him in the strike. It is likely that these mutually exclusive strengths of the fighters will drag out the meeting, and it will go into the 3rd round of overtime (2.5) 1.45, where the simplest Zaleski and the worthy Nurmagomedov functional will play the main role. So, if Abubakar does not decide to play striker, he has a much better chance of slowing down, and then dismantling the opponent in the 2nd and 3rd segments, tipping the judges in his favor.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Eliseu Zaleski dos Santos Prediction

Watching the career of a Brazilian athlete, one pattern can be distinguished: with an increase in the level of opposition, he was less likely to win ahead of schedule. Nurmagomedov, on the other hand, won the victory by finish (TKO), back in 2016. Returning to Elizeu's downtime for the third time, we can make allowances for the fact that after a series of powerful attacks on his part, the pace of the meeting will drop significantly, and subsequent segments will open up good prospects for Abubakar.

I would not expect an early victory of one of the parties, because both fighters are persistent and lost only in those fights where they made gross mistakes. At the same time, Nurmagomedov gets the opportunity to win 3 wins in a row, and start looking towards the TOP-15, and Zaleski dos Santos - to return with a loud victory, therefore, neither one nor the other will rush to go all-in, trying to tear off the opponent's head. A much more likely outcome: a referee's decision, or the victory of one of the parties at the end of the meeting, and it is Abubakar who has much more chances for this. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Total over (2.5) by rounds / Victory of Abubakar Nurmagomedov

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