Prediction for the fight Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira

Dominant UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya went from being a showman and flamboyant striker to a calculating, rather boring fighter in a few years, who decided to sideline the spectacular notches in the cage. However, now he has the opportunity to give a colorful duel in the stand, thanks to the "old acquaintance".

Building a career in kickboxing, “The Last Master of Styles” met twice with Alex Pereira, a native of the favelas, who defeated the Nigerian in those very fights. The UFC has been excited about the opportunity for a rematch between the two in an MMA bout, and at UFC 281 in New York on November 13, that bout will finally take place. How competitive will it be, and which of the guys has a better chance of winning? Let's figure it out.

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira

Israel Adesanya

Despite his kickboxing background, Easy has practiced various styles ranging from BJJ to taekwondo. In his best years, Adesanya competed under the Glory banner, where he became a top contender for the title. Sixth place in the world ranking of the best kickers and victories over the big-name opposition is not where he stopped.

In the future, Israel reached the level of a purple belt in jiu-jitsu, took championship belts in two Australian MMA leagues and signed up with the UFC, where, having dismantled a number of opponents from the top, he became an interim champion. After, with a victory over Robert Whittaker, he took over the belt of the undisputed champion, having already made 5 successful defenses.


There are no questions about Adesanya's arsenal - well-placed hands, kicks on all planes, successful use of combinations and the ability to fight from the position of an attacker and counter-puncher, make him dangerous for any opponent. But much more important here is the analytical mind. Reading the reactions of opponents, preparing traps, tricks and feints - it is very difficult to read Easy.

The filigree work of Israel in the standing position is the product of many years of work. He perfectly senses the moment to make an attack, hits at non-standard angles, competently uses anthropometry, and almost flawlessly controls the distance of the battle.

Adesanya's long legs seem like an easy target for wrestlers and grapplers, but they're not. In the middle weight, no one could lie down on the ground, and many could even transfer him. Only the bigger Jan Blachowicz got past Israel's defense, but this fight is an experiment that failed.


The main disadvantage of the current Easy is that he cut the base of techniques used to a minimum, and also became somehow passive. He allows opponents to take significant episodes, gives them rounds, waiting for the perfect moment to attack. Excessive caution and lack of progress are direct signals that the athlete is faced with metamorphoses (probably mental) that prevent him from revealing his full potential.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Israel, 33, last fought in July, defeating Jared Kannonier via unanimous decision. Prior to that, the champion's statistics consisted of 4 victories in five fights, where he lost to the aforementioned Blachowicz in the light heavyweight division, and spoiled the statistics of Marvin Vettori, Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and also Yoel Romero. Adesanya is in excellent condition, he works 25 minutes in a cage without any problems, but we have not seen him perform at a high pace, with a large amount of activity for a long time, and all this decline is simply explained - “Stylebender” has passed its peak.

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira

Alex Pereira

The Brazilian has made a more successful career in kickboxing than his counterpart. Also speaking at Glory, Alex managed to pick up belts in two divisions there (medium and light heavyweight). In addition to this, Pereira was the WGP KB, WAKO champion and won numerous major international competitions, also entering a boxing match once.

After his debut in MMA, Alex's achievements were much more modest. In 7 professional fights, he lost at the very start, after which he began to destroy one opponent after another with a confident step. Now, after 3 fights under the auspices of the UFC, he was given the opportunity to fight for the title.


Alex chose for himself the ideal tactics of combat: long distance, movement around the enemy and attacks towards, with their further development already as the first link. He gives up the center of the octagon in order to have more space to prepare his shots, and he implements it in the best possible way.

Almost every second combination of Pereira ends with a left hook to the liver. He hits a good straight right, pre-launching the jab, and finishes his signature trio with a sharp left punch. And when it comes to the clinch, the Brazilian's knees come into play.

In the case of "Poatan", we are not talking about a tall guy with a thin physique. In the off-season, he weighs 105-106 kg, therefore, within the framework of the average weight, his power is impressive. No wonder such a big guy has a single knockout punch.


Many strikers have one significant weakness - it is the need for space for a full charge to hit. In the fight with Bruno Silva, Pereira faced such a problem: his counterpart often flew at him, forcing him to retreat, pressing him against the net and exerting pressure, which ultimately prevented the South American athlete from developing his success.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Alex is 35 years old and has a winning streak of 6 victories. Before moving to the UFC, he beat the second-rate opposition in Brazil, and after that, he went through a number of local rivals, defeating Andreas Mikhailidis by technical knockout, then going the full distance with Silva, and knocking out Sean Strickland. Pereira demonstrates good condition, however, we have not yet seen him in tough battles, in fact, as well as in the championship rounds, so the contender will be forced to show his maximum, and for the first time face the most experienced opponent in his MMA career.

Comparative analysis

It doesn’t make much sense to address the issue of anthropometry in this pair, because the growth of the fighters is the same, and a few centimeters in the reach that go to the champion will not play a global role. More importantly, how good Adesanya is at distance control and defense, because while Pereira was crushing everyone in the ring, “Stylebender” relentlessly progressed as an MMA fighter, and this is key in this confrontation. What threat does Alex pose? He hits hard, uses a deceptive technique, circling around the opponent like a vulture, and biding his time for the final blow.

The Brazilian systematically squanders opponents' cardio by drying the body, charges well with elbows and knees, but otherwise, he has no surprises for Israel. In fact, Adesanya is better as a drummer, more diverse, and his timings are a problem for Pereira. Plus, Easy is great at close quarters, his short hooks come out in the blink of an eye, and in clinches (even with his back to the net), he feels right at home. What we will see as a result: Israel will definitely slow down the opponent with kicks, not letting him get close to him, and will definitely connect the jab.

There is no need to wait for active work at the start, because both like to fight from an opponent, and not to exert pressure. Only now Alex will have to go forward to deliver that very knockout left hook, and he must do it in the first 2-3 rounds, because the Brazilian gas tank is not infinite, unlike the championship. Footwork, body work and hard counterattacks, along with Israel's highest fighting IQ, will most likely not allow Poatan to use his trump card. And in general, previous experience shows that Easy can systematically "poke" the enemy without the risk of running into a crazy punch.

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira Fight Prediction

Watching commercials and promos in which the UFC media machine is trying to promote Alex Pereira, one wonders: what did he do in MMA that he is considered a serious threat to Adesanya? Yes, he dropped it in a kick, but that was a long time ago. As part of mixed martial arts, the Brazilian did not beat anyone from the elite of the division, moreover, he was not given wrestlers to competently bring him to the title. Neither in the technical arsenal, nor in experience, nor in any other aspects, I do not see the total superiority of Alex, in order to say with certainty that it is due to one or another strength that he will crush Israel. But Israel's pluses are a weighty argument for the final bet. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Israel Adesanya to win

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