Prediction for the fight Alexey Oleinik vs Ilir Latifi

After defeating Mirko Filipovic in 2013, Alexey Oleinik received an offer from the UFC and still fights there, averaging 2-3 fights a year. Many have repeatedly written him off, but Uncle Lyosha goes against the opinions of others, and at UFC on ESPN 33, he will reappear in the octagon. There he will fight with Ilir Latifi - a light heavyweight in the past, who decided not to waste his strength on a meaningless weight race.

Ilir has also managed to be forgotten, and his faded performances in recent years do not particularly attract an audience spoiled by the spectacle. That is why, to match his aging colleague, this athlete may soon find himself outside the promotion. On March 27, these two will decide their fate in the sports field and, taking into account Oleinik's words about the "extinguished fire", we should expect that this will be his farewell performance.

Alexey Oleinik vs Ilir Latifi

Ilir Latifi

The Swedish "Kuvalda" has an impressive background in wrestling. So Ilir, even before his debut in mixed martial arts, became the European champion in Greco-Roman wrestling (ADCC), and was also one of the participants in the World Championship. In addition, he excelled in grappling, building a successful amateur career there.

After, Latifi won the championship belt of the Superior Challenge promotion, and managed to gain a foothold in the UFC light heavyweight top. In the octagon, Ilir has seen a lot, and could have won victories over the strongest representatives of the organization, but due to his anthropometric features, he could not realize all the advantages gained on wrestling mats.


Ilira combines all the best qualities of a parter player: he is short, has a low center of gravity, a wide pelvis and hips, which allows him to easily defend himself against oncoming transfers. He quickly disables his counterpart's limbs as soon as he is on top and knows how to slowly take the optimal position, sometimes spending more time on it than on active actions.

Having fought back in the pros more than two dozen times, Latifi has never lost by submission. He not only skillfully defends himself from them, but also counterattacks in time, creating a lot of inconvenience for those who decide to be with him on the ground floor.

Despite a dense physique and a considerable percentage of subcutaneous fat, the Sledgehammer calmly works out 15 minutes at its own pace, without sagging by the 3rd round. His secret lies in the fact that he does not take unnecessary actions where it is not required, preferring to work measuredly and slowly in positions that are advantageous for him.


When Latifi competed at light heavyweight, it seemed like he got there by accident. Now he does look like a plump welterweight against the background of his rivals. Short hands, low speed qualities, and minimal desire to aggravate sluggish duels often prevent him from winning victories over the opposition.

Dry numbers indicate that the Swedish athlete is one of the most “low-hit” fighters in the division. He throws up to 2 punches per minute on average, and does it frankly predictably, without preparing attacks, and also without relying on explosive work. Simply put, in such conditions, he is unlikely to pose a threat to someone from the TOP-15.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Latifi is 38 years old and has a track record of 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 4 years. He won against Ovince Saint Preux back in 2018, as well as Tanner Boser, and even then, by a separate decision of the judges. The top guys in the person of Corey Anderson, Volkan Ozdemir and Derrick Lewis managed to pass it, proving their superiority as strikers. After that, a simple length of 9 months began, so it’s definitely not worth waiting for improvements from the old Ilir, the main thing is that it doesn’t rust at all.

Alexey Oleinik vs Ilir Latifi

Alexey Oleinik

The regiments of "Udava" are full of awards from championships in pankration, combat sambo and MMA. He repeatedly became the best in Russia and the world, took the titles of ProFC, KSW organizations, as well as a number of Grand Prix and one-day tournaments, adding to this numerous bonuses for unique victories with rare tricks.

Alexey won fights with legendary athletes like Mirko Filipovich, Mark Hunt, Jeff Monson and others. However, in the UFC, the Russian had a hard time, because here many not only surpassed him in size and physical strength, but were also corny younger, which made life difficult even for such an experienced grappler as he was.


Oleinik has more submission wins in statistics than professional fights for most athletes competing in the major leagues. As many as 46 people suffered from his holds, which included heel twists, elbow levers, the infamous "Ezekiel" with which he won several times in a row, as well as good control on the ground, which also plays a significant role.

As long as Alexei has the strength to go forward, he does it. But unlike many wrestlers, all this is seasoned with blows, yes, they are sweeping, their accuracy is lame and you can dodge most of them, however, such attacks do their job - they make it possible to get closer, after which the main part of the work begins.


Watching the last performances of our athlete, it became frankly scary. It has become very slow, quickly fizzles out, and is completely inconsistent with what prospectuses and tops are now offering. In addition, he also has problems with motivation, because fighting for the sake of fighting and trying to earn a pension are two different things.

The drawdown in reaction, speed and other indicators significantly worsened the fighting skills of the "Boa". If he managed to drive the same Werdum in the standing position, now these attempts to “hit” only open a gap in the defense and begin to play against Alexei himself.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Oleinik is 44 years old and this is exactly the case when you want to say “stop”. Knockouts during meetings with Derrick Lewis, Chris Dokas and Walt Harris, a disastrous performance with Sergei Spivak, a close fight with the aforementioned Fabricio Werdum and other "misses" clearly showed that Alexei is not just in decline, but is at its peak, from which he will never be able to get out. Therefore, in the upcoming fight, we can only rely on the fact that he will come out at least in the same form and with the same attitude as in the last fight - this will already be good news.

Comparative analysis

The Russian is the absolute favorite in this pair in terms of size and anthropometry, although he weighs several kilograms less. In height, Alexey is 10 cm ahead of Ilir, and in terms of arm span he goes ahead by as much as 18 cm. However, all these “advantages” will be leveled due to the fact that Oleinik is slower, and as a drummer he is no better than the younger one (the difference reaches 6 years) Swedish. He is unlikely to want to arrange a sudden slaughter, after so many fights, where one could fall asleep from his activity. You can even admit the idea that in the first half of the battle, "Boa" will be able to interrupt Latifi, only this will make him tired even faster.

The main part of this confrontation will begin on the ground. Aleksey is noticeably better at translating opponents, but he has never encountered such short fighters, perfectly balancing under any pressure. Most likely, Ilir will be able to defend himself and then respond with his own attack, and his positional struggle, taking into account the physical characteristics of the guys, will be more effective. In addition, he perfectly sets up defense against submissions, so Oleinik will have to work at 100% in the first 5-7 minutes of the fight, until his strength completely leaves him. Simply put, I don’t see how our fighter can defeat his colleague ahead of schedule, and at a distance, he has nothing to catch with the hardy Ilir.

Alexey Oleinik vs Ilir Latifi Fight Prediction

We are waiting for a measured, full of clinches duel, where two wrestlers will try to find the keys to each other's technique. It will be even better for Latifi if Oleinik decides to go first, because against this background, counterattacks can be developed and the opponents can be forced to do extra work. It is cardio that will allow the Swedish mixfighter to play the cards in a duel in his favor, and Alexei, who has long crossed the retirement age, as an athlete, has practically no trump cards, due to which he could cover the superiority of his opponent. It is unlikely that Ilir will score an early victory, given his calmness and calmness, but to take a confident victory by a referee’s decision is quite yes, moreover, regardless of whether the match will be held in a standing position or in a horizontal position. Download 1xbet to your phone and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Ilir Latifi to win

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