MMA fight prediction Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa

Tony Ferguson's career is similar to the attempts of a mad scientist to prove to the whole world that he is capable of great achievements, sitting closed in his room. "El Cucuy" does not change anything in the training approach, even moving to new teams, but he is trying to win - at UFC on ABC 7, he will have his eighth attempt "not to lose", in a fight with Michael Chiesa. Only this time, Tony will have to fight in the heat of Abu Dhabi, with an extremely experienced counterpart, and who knows what awaits the former hope of the lightweight division on the evening of August 3, when he enters the cage, is it the end of his career?

• Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa;
• Cory Sandhagen;
• Umar Nurmagomedov;
• Comparative analysis;
• Game Totals Prediction.

Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa

Tony Ferguson

It's scary to think, but for the fifth year the legendary El Cucuy has not known the taste of victory. Yes, he was previously the champion of regional leagues, took the interim UFC title, moreover, like his opponent, he won TUF. He has a black belt in jiu-jitsu, and a number of unique developments in strikeking, but over the years, all this has evaporated, but no one can stop Tony and force him to hang up his gloves. 

Strengths

It is worth starting only from the current conditions: Ferguson is enough for a round of active work, he is still able to drop opponents, moves unconventionally, and has something to offer on the ground floor, but the accumulated injuries and a protracted career multiply all his efforts by zero, both with veterans and the younger generation - beat him regularly and with enviable frequency. 

Weaknesses

The main disadvantage of Tony is the lack of understanding that he is no longer competitive. His time is long gone, and all those somersaults, as well as perseverance, due to which he won earlier, are over. 

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Tony is 40 years old, he is on a series of 7 defeats, starting with Justin Gaethje, and ending with Bobby Green and Paddy Pimblett. El Cucuy have not fought since December last year, but even such a pause for recovery will not make it better. It will be great if he just survives 3 rounds in his current form, and it would be simply naïve to believe that his comeback will take place right now - it's time for the legend to end, and that's it. 

Michael Chiesa

"Maverick," the winner of TUF Season 15, a brown belt in BJJ, and a former wrestler who competes in high school competitions. Michael did not win any high-profile titles in MMA, but he received some media exposure, as he surpassed guys like Beneil Darius, Rafael dos Anjos, Neil Magni and Carlos Condit - big stars shining at different times. 

Strengths

Chiesa's all early victories in his career are submissions, he held them exactly 10 times. On the ground, he is really good, he changes positions and techniques quite quickly, and also quite effectively and often carries out takedowns, working exclusively at medium-close distance. 

Weaknesses

The paradox is that most often Michael lost with techniques, since everything is quite bad with his defense, and in the rack, he manages to compete with the strikers with a creak, especially if they put pressure on him, and not him. Now, the American has completely lost much of what he has gained due to age-related changes. 

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Chiesa is 36 years old, he has lost three last fights, and has not competed for more than a year. He was defeated by Vicente Luque, Sean Brady and Kevin Holland, although before that, Maverick was fighting well, even if they had not won ahead of schedule since 2018. Now Michael's condition is more than enough to compete with veterans like himself, but this guy will not be enough for something more, and no one will hold his place in the division, given the low media coverage. 

Comparative analysis

Tony is inferior to his opponent in height, but slightly ahead in arm span. Does anthropometry matter at all? Given the viscous fights that Chiesa demonstrates, it is unlikely. Most likely, he will do everything possible to force Ferguson to retreat because of his deuces, even if they are not phenomenal, but they still have their weight and will definitely bypass the defense of their counterpart.

On the ground, Michael's current skills are also a little better, and here we are only talking about the fact that he will have to be careful in the first round, and then just increase the pace and the number of attacks. With such a game plan, it will not be difficult to deprive "El Cucuy" of the initiative, forcing it to retreat, and victory will be in the pocket of "Maverick" 

As for Tony, the only chance for him is a sprint in the first round, with a heavy hit and a subsequent finish, which before, such a downed pilot could not perform. Most likely, taking into account the reconnaissance in combat, the meeting will pass the equator of TB (1.5) in rounds, and then it all depends on whether Ferguson will fall for the tricks of Michael, who will definitely test his submission game on him. 

Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa Prediction

Once again, Tony enters the cage as an underdog, and in this case, betting on him, believing in a miracle, because he fights with an older opponent is not the best idea. It would be much wiser to bet on the duration of the fight, and as an additional option, on the victory of the favorite. It's just that Chiesa is not inferior to the current version of Ferguson in any of the parameters, and only a mistake on his part will lead to an upset. Both love to make mistakes, but we stopped believing in miracles, about after the 3rd defeat of El Cucuy in a row. Download 1xbet to your phone and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Total Over (1.5) from completed rounds/Win by Michael Chiesa