Prediction for the fight Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa

After losing the title, Sean Strickland quickly returned to action and on June 2, at UFC 302, in the co-main event, he will fight Paulo Costa. The Brazilian also suffered a defeat in the last fight, and both are charged to get out of the black streak. This match will take place in a 5-round format, so the guys will have plenty of time to answer the question of which of them is really stronger. So who will the Prudential Center crowd applaud as the winner?

• Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa;
• Sean Strickland;
• Paulo Costa;
• Comparative analysis;
• Game Totals Prediction.

Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa

Sean Strickland

"Tarzan", the first number in the rating, given that he was recently the champion. Here is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, a former dominant champion of a major regional KOTC league, and the owner of 4 bonus payments from the UFC. By the way, Sean has never defended his major league belt, but if he wins, he can easily count on returning to the best positions in the title race.

Strengths

Strickland is capable of high-intensity fights, regardless of their duration, while throwing a large number of strikes. This is not a puncher, but due to its overall tonnage, it manages to punch through less durable opponents. Breaking pace, good defense and a non-standard stance give him the opportunity to work on par with the best strikers, and takedown defense and good wrestling skills serve as an additional lifeline in the event of a failed plan “A”. Although here, there are hitches.

Weaknesses

Sean's main weakness is his limited techniques and always the same game plan, no sidesteps, even when things are going downhill. Moreover, sometimes Strickland allows himself to stagnate, hoping for a reaction and a strong head, but such inaction has repeatedly led to the fact that he simply did not have time to gain the required pace, giving all the initiative into the hands of the enemy.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Sean is 33 years old, and since the summer of 2022, he has had 6 fights, losing three of them. Tops of the level of Cannonier, Pereira and Du Plessis were able to bypass him, but by winning Imavov, Abusupyan Magomedov and Israel Adesanya, “Tarzan” was able to secure the title of champion. He is in good condition, ready for 5 rounds of a difficult confrontation and will certainly do everything possible to provoke the Brazilian and force him to move forward, making many mistakes. Moreover, such a combat distance is most beneficial for him.

Paulo Costa

The athlete occupies 7th place in the ranking. Quite expectedly, Paulo has a black belt in BJJ, which is typical for people from his country, but he prefers to fight in a stand-up position, where he willingly demonstrates the level of his Muay Thai. Previously, Costa became the champion of the Jungle Fight and less popular Face to Face organizations. Until 2024, “Borrachinho” fought no more than once in 12 months, but now he has become more active and, based on a new contract, is seeking to earn more money.

Strengths

Costa is a typical aggressor, the number one, who spends almost no time on reconnaissance, but immediately goes forward and throws the best shots he is capable of. Thick punches to the body and head, a good base of kicks launched across all tiers, and confident protection from transfers allow him to experiment and openly attack without particularly worrying about retaliatory damage - the Brazilian’s head is still strong.

Weaknesses

Paulo always slowed down towards the 3rd round, giving his all to attacks in the first five minutes. He charges strongly, in amplitude, from the heart, acidifying his muscles and quite soon losing any opportunity to give quick responses to the enemy’s attacks and develop his own attacks. And this guy can’t be called the owner of a high fighting IQ either.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

The athlete is 33 years old, and now his career, despite all Costa’s self-confidence and statements, is in a very poor state. Three defeats in 5 fights over five years is a completely unenviable result. Having lost to Adesanya, Vettori and Whittaker, Paulo barely survived clashes with the “old men” Romero and Rockhold, repeatedly finding himself on the verge of defeat. And yet, the Brazilian always remains dangerous due to his physics and good striking technique, even if not seasoned with speed, as well as grandiose game plans.

Comparative analysis

With identical height, Sean offers his opponent, as an argument, an arm span that is 10 centimeters larger. Even taking into account the presence of some kind of crooked stance and rather original boxing, Strickland will be able to use this indicator to his advantage. Also, let’s add here his confident block, excellent pace and speed, and he also knows how to “fight back” with kicks, albeit somewhat reluctantly.

In theory, when Paulo gets thoroughly tired and can no longer chase Sean around the octagon, scaring him with his beaters, he could try to fight, just to check whose BJJ black belt is real. However, “Tarzan” demonstrated that he is not afraid of takedowns, and he can get up after them without any problems, and in top control, Costa is not as good as he would like. Probably, Paulo will be able to take the start, but his cardio will not allow him to develop this success indefinitely.

And here the American’s notorious boxing, high workrate and increasing tempo will come into play. This is the real key to victory based on the results of all 5 rounds, or TKO in the final stages of Total less (3.5), when Costa's muscles eat up all the oxygen in the arena. How can the Brazilian win? Only the finish in the first segments, but “Borracinho” is not Alex Pereira at all, and despite his terrifying appearance, he seemed to have forgotten how to turn off the lights with one touch.

Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa Prediction

Perhaps the bookmaker's quotes are a little incorrect here, since Sean is not such a giant of mixed martial arts that he could easily move Paulo. But it will be difficult to break through this trash talk machine in the early stages, and then, with speed and spamming with marking blows, he will take every round and win. At the same time, it’s also impossible not to believe in Costa at all, because he is dangerous and is finally gaining momentum, performing more and more often.

So, first of all, it’s worth looking at the total rounds, the same Total less (2.5) for completed rounds is almost equal in odds to Sean’s victory (1.41), and Total over (3.5) surpasses him. And a bet on such a result will most likely hit the target, because since 2018, Paulo has not completed a single fight in his favor by KO/TKO, and with Strickland, he is unlikely to be able to do this. Download 1xbet to your phone and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Total over (2.5-3.5) for completed rounds