Prediction for the fight Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier

The undisputed champion of the UFC lightweight category, Islam Makhachev, after a duology with Alexander Volkanovski, will defend his title for the first time with an opponent from his division. At UFC 302, which will take place in Newark on June 2, he will face Dustin Poirier, a two-time contender for gold at 70 kg. This confrontation will be headed by a numbered event, and it is not at all excluded that this appearance in the octagon could be the final one in “Diamond”’s career.

Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier

Islam Makhachev

Makhachev excelled in combat sambo, becoming the best in the world, Russia and Dagestan in this discipline, earning the title of MSMK. Afterwards, he achieved success in the UFC, taking the title, already amassed a good collection of bonuses, and added a couple of triumphs over lightweight and featherweight champions. By the way, Islam started with taekwondo and Wushu Sanda, so his love for kicks is quite justified by the base.


Let's start with the stance: this is an accurate, sharp, calculating striker who knows how to control the distance, who has a well-honed jab and good kicks. On the ground, there are practically no questions for Makhachev, since from control to changing positions with attacks, he does everything flawlessly. Although even here, the same Volkanovski, found loopholes for the time being.


The problem with Islam is that in a stand-up position he prefers to wait for his opponent’s actions and relies on his mistakes, failures, etc. With opponents who hit hard, this approach can work against him, and besides, long sessions on the ground, when Makhachev’s hands are clinging to like gold bars (again a reference to Volkanovski), he cannot apply quality pressure and cause damage. However, these are all small details that only a few can use.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Islam is 32 years old and is currently on a 13-fight winning streak that includes Charles Oliveira, Volkanovski, Bobby Green, Dan Hooker and others. Perhaps not all names are as sonorous as Poirier’s, but in the lion’s share of cases, Makhachev dominated them without getting into difficult situations. Only Alex managed to slightly shake the champion’s authority in the first fight, but otherwise, we are talking about an athlete at the peak who has a minimum of shortcomings, and finding a solution to this problem is very difficult.

Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier

Dustin Poirier

It is symbolic that for number 4 in the ranking, the title fight will be the 40th in his professional career. Dustin's lifetime included 14 bonus payouts for his biggest fights, he earned a black belt in BJJ, was the interim UFC lightweight champion, and was also the only one to beat Conor McGregor twice in a row. Poirier is rightfully considered one of the best boxers in the league, and holds the record for the most attempts to enter the guillotine in one round - a joke, but it has its place.


“Diamond” is a mid-to-close range fighter, where his hooks and stinging jab fit perfectly. Dustin is not averse to going into deep defense to let his opponent get out of control, and then breaks his defense and counterattacks, often getting knockouts. He also has BJJ in his arsenal, and what’s most interesting is that he won victories through chokeholds, “Brabo”, elbow lever, but not his signature guillotine.


Poirier, with amazing simplicity, gives up his position, his back, and also the space in the octagon, starting to act from defense and hoping for those stunning counterattacks. This leads to both receiving unnecessary damage and defeats. This guy is good at exchanges, but with age, his blocking does not become stronger, and there is no progress on the ground, apart from attacking episodes. And the American’s cardio does not promise him great prospects in 5 rounds, although before everything was different.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Dustin is 35 years old, and he took his 3 victories in 5 last fights, defeating Conor McGregor, Benoit Saint-Denis and Michael Chandler. Oliveira and Justin Gaethje gave him problems and won ahead of schedule, because in these battles, Poirier revealed the very gaps in his defense. As the years go by, “Brilliant’s” cardio gradually fades away, his head no longer makes decisions so quickly and mistakes appear more and more often. The Louisianan still excels due to his experience and good conditioning, but his thoughts about leaving the sport have a very solid basis.

Comparative analysis

The challenger will be slightly superior to the champion in arm span, and in terms of size and anthropometry, this is perhaps the only parameter where he is ahead. With technology, everything is much more confusing, because both have counterarguments with which they can delay each other. What Dustin has: sprinting at the start, in the form of serial attacks in a standing position, may well lead him to success, since Makhachev rarely rushes forward in the first seconds, often letting his opponent work and fine-tune his striking distance.

In addition, in case of a successful grab, Islam may decide to go for a takedown, and until his neck and head are covered with sweat, that very lightning guillotine also has a certain chance of hitting the target (5.77). If we measure everything in more specific categories, then most likely, “Diamond” will have an advantage in the beginning, until he is on the floor, and he can be transferred and take the back too - Saint-Denis successfully proved this in their last fight.

And if in the standing position Makhachev does not have many options for developing an offensive, then on the ground, with his excellent control, ground-and-pound and steel grips, he can finish the fight as soon as Poirier is a little exhausted - in the 2nd round this scenario is more than likely. Dustin too often makes mistakes in the segment before the equator of the meeting, and after that he makes a comeback, but not in this case, Islam will not forgive him for mistakes. So, due to a more refined arsenal on the ground and problems with the American’s defense, the chances of triumph are inexorably fading into Makhachev’s treasury.

Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier Prediction

Dustin is a pretty strong guy, and at first, even if he is transferred right away, he will be able to defend himself from suffocations and painful locks, which is why there is a bet on the total rounds (Total over (1.5) by rounds - 2.12). A defeat is also possible, but he lost even to Habib and Oliveira with techniques in the 3rd segment, so statistics play into our hands. The remaining options, such as the fact that the fight will end before the middle of the third round (1.68), are already more risky, so here it is wiser to rely on the big favorite – Makhachev. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Total over (1.5) in completed rounds/Early victory for Islam Makhachev

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