Predictions for the fight Sean O'Malley – Louis Smolka

The main card of UFC 264 was opened by the guys from the lightest weight – the newly minted star of the organization, Sean O'Malley, and the fighter who makes the second run in the promotion, Louis Smolka. Not so long ago, "Sugar" practically implemented its plan and got into the ratings, but after an annoying loss to Marlon Vera, it turned out to be beyond its limits.

Another victory can bring him closer not only to the top, but also to higher-class opponents. And it is worth noting that Smolka is an ideal opponent for the next step. Will O'Malley be able to pass an experienced vis-a-vis, or will he face an unexpected defeat? We will try to understand this.

Sean O'Malley – Louis Smolka

Sean O'Malley

It is strange to hear that the filigree drummer Sean began studying martial arts with freestyle wrestling. Only after some time he discovered kickboxing and BZH, after which he fully realized his potential, launching a career in mixed martial arts. The amateur adventures of a native of Montana were intense – he handed out knockouts and submissions in almost every performance.

Now, O'Malley is loved by the public, despite the positions, thanks to his honed striking technique, suspended language and finishes over an increasingly high-class opposition. It should be noted that Sean has practically no regalia in sports disciplines, only a few nominations for the best fights of the evening.

A creative and dangerous drummer

The main feature of "Sugar" is the perfect movement and high accuracy. He rarely raises his hands to his chin, while missing a minimum of blows. Sharp hits of the legs, and straight lines and hooks appearing out of nowhere, take his rivals by surprise. And, despite his thinness, the American charges very well.

Lack of fights with experienced fighters

Vera's defeat is more an unfortunate combination of circumstances than a pattern, but the fact that O'Malley has not yet met a really high-class professional in the octagon does not give confidence in his capabilities. He beats passing guys without problems, but what will happen when (if) Sean will reach the drummers and wrestlers from the top 10 – a big question.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

The athlete is only 26 years old, he is in the stage of training and self-improvement, so it's still too early to talk about the peak of his form. His flawless record was overshadowed by a loss to the aforementioned Marlon Vera, but impressive victories over veterans Eddie Vineland and Thomas Almeida demonstrate that at the moment Sean is already at a very good level. He was in the cage only 3 months ago, so we should expect that the fighter will come to this fight in excellent, as always, form.

Predictions for the fight Sean O'Malley – Louis Smolka

Louis Smolka

"The last Samurai" is a judoka on the basis of the base, and he had a chance to perform in karate as a junior. There is not much to tell about Luis – he is not a fighter who stands out against the background of his colleagues. He was the champion of the American league PXC, and for the first time getting into the UFC, he reached a good level, but lost in a number of fights (to Brandon Moreno, Ray Borg, Tim Elliott) and was fired.

Returning back after several victories in other organizations, Smolka met with opposition far from the foreseeable ratings. And at the moment, he did not manage to win in the battles with the "okolotops". However, fights with his participation are always interesting – there are a lot of finishes, and always bright confrontations.

Savvy in everything

Thanks to the base in judo, Luis is friends with throws and is quite well-versed in working on the ground. And karate allowed him to develop his legs, on which he cuts great corners and gets away from punches. In total, out of 17 career victories, Smolka completed 15 before the final gong.

Lack of ambition

Luis belongs to the type of athletes who have been in the UFC roster for a long time, but have never been heard of. He performs well, but always merges fights that could guarantee him a bright future. To put it simply, this is a guy without championship ambitions.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Smolka is 29 years old, he has not entered the cage since the beginning of December 2020, and now he is going with a 3-2 statistic in his last five appearances. The victories over Jose Quinones and Ryan McDonald looked impressive, but Matt Schnell and Casey Kenny spoiled the Hawaiian's statistics with two submissives. Luis is still in good shape, however, even in such conditions, he has never been able to defeat high-class opponents.

Bookmakers ' odds

Experts suggest betting on the victory of Sean O'Malley with a coefficient of 1.25, or choose the underdog, Louis Smolka, with a 4-kef as the triumphant. In the 1xbet app, you can always bet on your favorite.

Comparative analysis

As a representative of the lightest weight, Sean is simply huge: the height is 180 cm (against 175 cm for Smolka) and the arm span is 183 cm (against 175 for Louis). There is no doubt that O'Malley is head and shoulders above his counterpart in striking technique, and a good defense against transfers will not allow Smolka to fully realize his superiority on the ground floor.

The footwork, the feeling of the perfect moment to attack, the elusiveness – all this is about Sean, and Louis ' style is just right for him. The desire to get closer in the performance of "The Last Samurai" will always be welcomed by instant attacks of "Sugar". However, if it comes to the stalls, the Hawaiian will be much better in this component.

Sean O'Malley – Louis Smolka Fight Prediction

Let's start with the fact that we have fighters of different levels in front of us: Smolka had a chance to prove himself, but he did not do it, but O'Malley, on the contrary, only came to the UFC, immediately announced his intentions. It can be assumed that the fight will take place according to the standard scenario: abundant bombardment performed by Sean, distance control, kicks to indicate it and tight hits from both hands. Luis can compete with him, but it is unlikely in all rounds, and it may not come to takedowns, especially successful ones. Therefore, by a significant margin, I will give preference to Sean O'Malley.

Prediction: Sean O'Malley Wins

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