Prediction for the Conor McGregor – Dustin Poirier fight, part 3

One of the most sprawling trilogies in the history of the UFC will soon get its end. The story of Conor McGregor and Dustin Porrier, began back in 2014. After that, the fighters had a rematch in January 2021, and now the promotion's management decided to bring them together for the third time at the big, numbered UFC 264 tournament, which will be headed by lightweights. The confrontation will take place within the framework of 5 rounds, in the category up to 70 kg, and the title of the main contender for the title of champion will be at stake.

The debate over whether McGregor still has at least something with which he pleased the audience a few years ago does not fade for a second. And to understand this whole situation, we suggest that you conduct a thorough analysis of the participants of the main fight of the evening, and as a result determine which of them has the best chance of winning.

Conor McGregor – Dustin Poirier

Conor McGregor

Notorius has been the face of the organization for many years. He became the first athlete in the history of the UFC who managed to simultaneously win titles in different weight categories (66 kg and 70 kg). However, he made a name for himself due to the three-shot and the victories he won over high-class opponents, literally playing on their weaknesses.

Before us is a pronounced counterpuncher, with a special sense of distance and timing. But few people are ready to admit that Conor's grappling is also at a high level. The honed technique, speed and accuracy of this fighter allowed him to send many legendary athletes to the floor, like Eddie Alvarez, Jose Aldo, Donald Cerrone and others. And what can I hide – McGregor has one of the heaviest backhands in the lightweight division.

Elite-level drummer

When we talk about Conor as a drummer, it's not just about the work of the hands. He perfectly exposes the combat distance at the expense of the frontkicks, charges tightly with his knees, and surpasses many of his colleagues in terms of creativity.

A unique combination of fighting qualities

Earlier it was mentioned that McGregor has a special sense of distance, and his accuracy and lightning-fast combinations disable even the strongest opponents. The ex-champion has not lost these skills to this day, which makes him dangerous at all stages of the fight.

Lack of motivation and cardio

Over the past 5 years, the Irishman has earned more money than all the UFC fighters combined. And when you have everything, then it becomes more difficult to strive for something every day. Underestimating the opposition, the lack of desire to plow in the hall and many other little things made Conor the one we saw in his extreme duel. In addition, poor-quality training has always negatively affected his endurance, because in this part "Notorius" is not the best in the light category.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

McGregor is almost 33 years old, and in his last 6 appearances, he managed to get only 3 victories. The peak of the Irish athlete's form came in 2015-2016, when he was light on his feet, showed something new in every fight and developed. Now, Conor has become less hungry, and the defeats to Dustin Porje and Khabib Nurmagomedov showed that he should take the training process more seriously. Mac is still charging hard, he has not lost his speed, and most importantly, he promises to return "strong" as never before. However, the fact remains that his best years are behind him.

Prediction for the Conor McGregor – Dustin Poirier fight, part 3

Dustin Poirier

The American was the interim UFC champion in 70 kg. To achieve victories, he uses boxing, which Dustin has recently honed to a very good level, grappling and BZHJ. On earth, the crown techniques of Porye are suffocating, but in the rack he has repeatedly rolled up the chopping, since it is definitely impossible to call him as neat a striker as Conor.

For many years in the promotion, "Diamond" beat many top rivals, including: Max Holloway, Dan Hooker, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gage and others. The athlete is approximately equally good in all aspects of the fight, but it is not possible to single out any particular path where he is better than the others. Dustin is a full-fledged MMA fighter, which is why he occupies such high positions in the rating.

Versatility and character

Porye is good because he simply does not know how to give up. He can reboot between rounds and, having lost the first segment, go to the second with a completely new attitude. Kneading on his hands, positional struggle, or tactical war-he manages to get out of the most difficult situations.

Excessive straightforwardness

Dustin has one disadvantage, which often causes him to receive extra damage – this is an outright desire to destroy his opponent, passing through his blows. For quite a long time, an athlete can hit from a distance, carefully select moments for attacks, but as soon as he is caught, the slaughter begins.

Fighter's current form and readiness

Porya is 32 years old, and only Khabib Nurmagomedov could defeat him in the last few years. A hard fight with Dan Hooker showed that Dustin is still able to endure hard cuts on his feet for five rounds. And during the confrontation with Conor, he expanded his arsenal with new blows, demonstrating that, unlike the Irishman, he wants to learn and apply the best practices from training in battle. As for the downtime, the "Diamond" was retired for 5 months, as was its counterpart.

Bookmakers ' odds

Experts of 1xbet see Dustin Porrier as a minor favorite, for whose victory a coefficient of 1.8 is given. At the same time, you can bet on Conor McGregor with a coefficient of 2. Download 1xbet and bet on your favorite.

Comparative analysis

According to the established tradition, let's start with anthropometric dаta: Dustin is 3 cm taller than Conor, but he is 5 cm shorter in arm span. In a fight, the guys will weigh about the same, since both are athletic and have a minimum of subcutaneous fat. If we talk about the technical equipment of each of them, then Porje snatches the championship here, because he shows himself better in the stalls, he won 7 times with submissives, but McGregor uses defensive wrestling to a greater extent than he plays the role of an attacker.

According to general indicators, Dustin also looks fresher, he is on a good winning streak, and a minimum of losses in recent years, they say that right now the American has reached peak conditions. In contrast, Notorius can offer higher speed indicators and accuracy, as well as a variety of footwork. Interestingly, the statistics on defense in the rack and on the ground are almost identical for the fighters, the overall activity is about the same, the only thing is that Porye often conducts takedowns.

Conor McGregor – Dustin Poirier Fight Prediction

The scenario of the trilogy between Conor and Dustin can be anything, but it's hard to believe that everything will end the same way as in their last fight. There is a considerable probability that this time the guys can use more fighting, but in this case, the excellent level of protection of McGregor is unlikely to allow Porje to reach his potential. And in the stand, the advantage is still on the side of the Irishman, and his team will certainly do everything so that the situation with the beaten legs does not happen again. We definitely expect a competitive confrontation, but a lot depends on whether Conor is ready to fully engage in the training process and not stumble over the underestimation of the opponent again. As a result, McGregor has a better chance of winning, because if he connects his entire arsenal in the rack, and does not fixate on boxing, and even takes care of the footwork, then he can kill Dustin. And with the balance of forces 55 to 45, I will give preference to the Irishman. However, let me remind you – everything is tied around his motivation, and that's all.

Prediction: Conor McGregor Wins

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