Prediction for the fight Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson

UFC on ESPN 42 was supposed to be a showdown between top middleweights Jack Hermansson and Derek Brunson. The wrestling fight promised to be an ornament of the event, especially since the 5th position in the ranking was at stake, however, Brunson's injury forced the promotion management to quickly look for a replacement for him.

The call was answered by Georgian prospect Roman Dolidze, who last year decided to move down to the middle division from light heavyweight. For him, the meeting with Hermansson is a unique opportunity to instantly break into the race of contenders, and on December 4, we will find out if Kavkazets will be able to use it correctly.

Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson

Roman Dolidze

At this stage of his career, Roman is outside the official TOP-15 ranking of the middle division. Nevertheless, his merits in sports are impressive: the grappling world champion (FILA version), the ADCC Asian champion and the Oceanian champion in the same version. In addition, Dolidze won the WWFC MMA league belt, and also tried himself in three weight categories, gradually descending from heavyweight to middleweight.


Considering Roman's background in martial arts, it is not at all surprising that his element is the stalls. And this story is not limited to banal control, as the fighter prefers activity on the ground floor, reinforced by constant submissions, as well as tight ground and pound. Recently, a purely wrestling technique in the stand, consisting of sweeping overhands and constant pressure with a change of floors of attacks, has begun to be replenished with some developments from kickboxing and boxing - low kicks, along with heavy punches, create the basis for subsequent actions at the net and takedowns.


Dolidze has three problems, all of which he is actively working on: stamina, experience with top opposition, and defense against transfers to the ground. Not everyone dares to go into the fight with "Kavkazets", but the fact remains that he stops takedowns only in one case out of three. And impulsiveness at the beginning of performances slows down the Georgian athlete after the first round, and in addition to improving cardio, he should think about a more even distribution of forces over five minutes.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Roman is 34 years old and his year-long middleweight run is starting to take shape. If initially the weight race had a terrible effect on his condition, now the fighter is gradually realizing his potential, using impressive dimensions. 4 victories in 5 extreme fights were obtained in fights with John Allan, Laureano Staropoli, Kyle Dokas and Phil Hawes. However, Trevin Giles managed to overshadow the debut of "Caucasian" in the middleweight division. Dolidze's noticeable progress in the technical aspect is still obscured by his endurance, however, this does not detract from the fact that the athlete is extremely dangerous in the first half of the fight.

Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson

Jack Hermansson

The eighth number in the UFC 84 kg category has successfully adapted to MMA after many years of performances in Greco-Roman wrestling and grappling, where he has many prestigious awards. In mixed martial arts, Jack took the belts of three leagues: Cage Warriors, ECFF and WFS. And having signed up for a top promotion, he was considered one of the most promising fighters with every chance to compete for the title.


The Joker has independently proclaimed himself the world's most intimidating ground and pound fighter. Indeed, having an excellent fighting base, he easily takes advantageous positions on the ground, from where he discharges at opponents with endless series of blows. In extreme performances, Jack also shows some success in the stand, where he actively handles all the opposite floors, connecting low kicks to his combinations. And, nevertheless, his ground floor is the main lever of pressure on the opponent.


Hermansson was given a large advance, calling him a future challenger. As it turned out, he was not able to compete with the current middleweight five. Neither Vettori with his partner, nor Strickland with his original stand, did not succumb to the attempts of the European to solve everything through wrestling. Because of this, an interesting picture emerges: we have a strong top, who, apparently, is gradually taking on the role of a gatekeeper, because his skill level is not enough for global success at the UFC level.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Jack is 34 years old, and he changes defeats into victories with enviable stability. In 6 fights, the Swede's score is 3-3, as he lost to Marvin Vettori, Jared Cannonier and Sean Strickland, but was able to defeat Kelvin Gastelum, Edmen Shahbazyan and Chris Curtis. The “Joker” is ready to work at least 3, at least 5 rounds, but assessing his current condition, it becomes clear that the peak of the athlete’s form has been passed, and now he is able to compete only in those fights where he manages to instantly develop offensive success. It doesn’t work with stronger guys, there are so many defeats to challenger-level fighters from there.

Comparative analysis

In anthropometric indicators, parity can be set between athletes: Roman is 5 cm higher than his counterpart, and he is 4 cm ahead of him in the reach. Stylistically, the fighters are also a bit similar: both are more accustomed to work as the first number, get closer, and then knit opponents or transfer them to the ground . But the essential difference here is that Dolidze does it aggressively and powerfully, flying into opponents with overhands, then grabbing one leg in motion and performing a takedown. Hermansson, on the other hand, acts more delicately, he hits much more collected, holds his hands high and prepares attacks more carefully.

However, statistics show that the Caucasian fighter's strategy works better, because the Georgian fighter completes twice as many passes, and the percentage of successful attempts is also almost twice that of the Joker. In addition, Roman's power struggle, along with the same high-quality ground and pound as the Swede, is complemented by an abundance of attempts to make submissions, ranging from twisting the heels to choking. Due to the size and physical strength, Dolidze will be able to cover many technical gaps, so Hermansson will not be able to develop momentary success on the ground floor.

On the stand, Roman's aggression will also get him in trouble and, against the backdrop of all this, it may seem that the Georgian athlete has a serious chance of making an upset, if not for a couple of “buts”. He enters this fight after a pause of less than a month and a half (the last fight was held on October 30), on the shortest notice, without preparation and enough time to cut weight. In addition, Dolidze has never been famous for good cardio, so in the current conditions it would be naive to expect 100% readiness from him. And yes, do not forget that this is the first time he meets an opponent of such a high level, so he will have to solve much more problems than just neutralizing Jack in the stand or on the ground.

Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson Prediction

The lion's share of Hermansson's appearances in 3 years ended in judges' decisions (5 from 7 fights), so the fight, in which he is not only the favourite, but also is on the higher places in the ratings and enters the octagon with a full training camp, has all the chances to be in his favour. Dolidze has no trumps: a week and a half of "training", definitely a heavy weight class, and other factors seriously reduce the confidence in his victory. However, the wild style of the Georgian and his starting pressure can eliminate the need to spend 3 rounds in the cage, and finish everything in the first round. Will it work? Tiago Santos and Jared Cannonier did, and if they don't, the quickly tired Roman is unlikely to make it to the final bell. That's why betting on an early end to the bout has the best chance of passing, and this confrontation will in any case delight the viewer with a spectacular final. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Total under 2.5 rounds.

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