Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez fight prediction

The UFC featherweight division has always been filled with real monsters, and guys like Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega are definitely in that caste. It is even surprising that they were not brought together much earlier, because from time to time each of them is at arm's length from the championship title. The matchmakers decided to organize this fight, and on July 16, in the main event of the UFC ACB 3 tournament, representatives of two different schools will share the octagon in order to determine the best.

The clash of BJJ and taekwondo - this rarely happens, because the interest in their confrontation will be doubled. The winner has every chance of becoming one of the first in line for the title, although the same Ortega has already unsuccessfully tried to pick it up twice. In any case, a magnificent fight awaits us, the probable victor of which we will determine in our detailed prediction.

Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez

Brian Ortega

The American takes the second line of the official rating. Brian holds a 1st dan black belt in jiu-jitsu, which was presented to him by one of the representatives of the Gracie school. In addition, "T-City" became the champion of regional promotions RTC and RFA in the division up to 66 kg. Of the 10 fights held in the UFC, he earned 8 bonuses, sometimes 2 per night.

Ortega has dealt with veterans and top prospects alike, and victories over Clay Guida, Cub Swanson, Renato Moicano, and more have catapulted him into contender status. True, the level of skills, as it turned out, was not enough for him to compete with two champions - Holloway and Volkanovski.


Ortega's BJJ is impressive, because he doesn't just win with passing fighters, but submits the same black belts. The guillotine and hand triangle in his performance are masterpieces, and only a few opponents managed to get out of the deadly grip.

After a two-year downtime, from 2018 to 2020, Brian returned to the octagon as a completely different athlete. His boxing has reached a new level, thanks to which T-City has also become dangerous in the stand. It's not on par with what champion caliber guys can offer, but still.

In the confrontation with Max Holloway, Bryan showed his full potential in terms of endurance. He can take any damage and still move forward. No one has yet pierced his jaw, in fact, like his character.


As a basic jitser, Ortega almost never initiates transfers, and in terms of control on the ground, if it is not an attack by a technique, he does not stand out in anything special. And what can we say about the notches in the rack with the elite of the division, where the American takes on more blows than he throws himself. He has problems, but they appear only in championship fights.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Brian is 31 years old and his flawless record was only marred by losses to Holloway and Alex Volkanovski, which showed a huge gap between the 2nd ranked and the guys from the top. However, declassing against the Korean Zombie, Frankie Edgar, Cub Swanson and others opens our eyes to the current level of Ortega. He is young, has peaked in physical condition, and is approaching his peak in technical terms. Therefore, there is no doubt about his readiness.

Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez

Yair Rodriguez

The Mexican cannot yet boast of having titles and other things, but he has certain achievements in martial arts. This is a black belt in taekwondo, the winner of the TUF show for fighters from Latin America, and, among other things, one of the brightest strikers, even if you take all UFC divisions combined.

Yair has already taken 7 bonuses for the best fights, and in his piggy bank there are names that many will envy: BJ Penn, Dan Hooker, Chen Sung Jong, and many others. Rodriguez got to the Candidates fights, however, as in the case of his future counterpart, he could not overcome the barrier, since the top division was secured by the former and current champions.


Yair is one of the few who has adapted taekwondo to the UFC octagon so well. He is a true master of percussion technique, capable of not only swinging his legs, but sculpting a single bunch out of it, where there is a place for feints and furious attacks. The most important thing here is that even the most intricate punches in his performance lead to knockouts.

Each striker is good where there is room for the development of attacks. Rodriguez is notable for the fact that he does not need "permission" from the opponent to allocate that very space, with the help of kicks he clears the striking distance, and then goes forward, preparing crown combinations.

The Mexican knows how to endure and, receiving serious damage, still does not moderate his ardor - it is impossible to make him stop. Let this stubbornness sometimes play against him, but so far only one person has managed to force Yair to fall, and even then at the beginning of his career.


There are no questions about Rodriguez's stand - he is good there, though not in the same way as the same Holloway. But on the ground, this guy is not so impressive, and his protection from transfers is not at the best level. So far, no one has submitted him, but it’s impossible to say that we have a wagon in front of us, he makes a lot of mistakes, which at this level is unacceptable.

It is simply impossible to see El Pantera in the octagon more than 1-2 times a year. Injuries, disagreements with the leadership regarding the organization of fights, as well as failed performances after returns - all this negatively affects not the athlete's career, but also his physical condition.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Yair is 29 years old, and last November, after a layoff of 25 months, he lost to Max Holloway on his own battlefield - in the rack. Before that, the Mexican passed Jeremy Stevens and the “Korean Zombie”, although he frankly lost to the latter, throwing a lucky elbow under the gong. Frankie Edgar managed to take Victoria in a fight with him, so there is no need to talk about some even flow of affairs with Rodriguez. He is usually in good shape, his technique is difficult to read, but his not entirely clear attitude towards running his own affairs leads him relentlessly to defeat.

Comparative analysis

In terms of anthropometry, Yair is a little ahead, surpassing his opponent by 5 cm, both in height and arm span. This will undoubtedly affect how the meeting will take place in the stance, where Ortega manifests himself more in the work of the hands, and Rodriguez will be able to get him with kicks to the body and powerful lows. However, the American is in no way inferior to his counterpart in the number of punches thrown, and purely on his fists, he can look even more profitable if you compare them in recent fights with the same opponents. In the clinch, and even more so in the stalls, the gap is more significant, because this is Brian's element, who can initiate a rapprochement himself and counterattack, tying Yair right from the stand.

You can be sure that "T-City" will not miss the opportunity to throw a reception as soon as the Mexican makes the slightest mistake and allows himself to be taken. And yet, the guys should arrange a showdown on their feet, because Ortega is very confident in his skills, and it will be interesting for him to defeat an opponent where he is really good. And if initially “El Pantera” is able to break the distance and attack from positions convenient for him, then the American will offer him a pace that he will no longer be able to pull. And to hope that Brian will fall from another intricate bunch is unreasonable, he is too resistant. So, the later rounds, if the fight goes there, in any case, will be for the ex-challenger, who will not let himself be offended during the exchanges, and will certainly surpass his opponent on the ground floor.

Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez Fight Prediction

For Yair Rodriguez, meeting Brian Ortega is another “gift”. In recent years, he looks faded, does not show something really new, and in general, as a representative of MMA, he does not try to develop his skills in order to compete at all levels of the fight. And this is taking into account that he is still very young. Ortega, on the contrary, absorbs new knowledge like a sponge, and despite the fact that this is still not enough to win the belt, he must cope with an opponent of the level of Rodriguez. As mentioned above, the beginning of the meeting can go to Yair, even a couple of rounds, but then cardio will come into play, not counting Brian's opportunities on the ground. Considering that there will be a striker and a full-fledged MMA fighter in the cage, both in good condition and so on, one believes more in the triumph of T-City, for which more ways to achieve victory are banally open. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Brian Ortega to win

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