Prediction for the fight Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksander Rakic

Former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz has long terrified his peers with his "Polish power". However, generations of fighters are changing, and now more and more young talents are entering the top, and Alexander Rakich is definitely one of them. Already on May 15, this guy will have to share the promotion octagon with the most experienced opponent in order to prove his belonging to the division's elite.

The UFC management gave them the honor of heading the ESPN 36 tournament, so there is a lot of responsibility on the athletes. The age-old question, which is better: experience or youth? It will have to be answered not only by the athletes themselves, but also by us, since the meeting promises to be tense, competitive and, without a doubt, one of the brightest at the planned event.

Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksander Rakic

Jan Blachowicz

The start of Jan's career in sports is associated with kickboxing - he has several significant titles in amateur sports. However, having started studying BJJ, he soon enough switched to MMA, where he repeatedly became the winner of KSW light heavyweight tournaments, and then completely took the organization's belt, leaving there without giving it away.

The first years in the UFC did not work out for Blachowicz, he often lost, but later, after going through veterans and middleweights who believed in themselves (Luke Rockhold, Ronaldo Souza), he reached the title and was able to make one successful defense. Now the Pole is satisfied with the status of the 1st number in the rating, and still hopes to get the opportunity to meet the reigning champion.


The catchphrase, which Yang introduced into use, fully reflects reality. His hooks really pose a special threat to opponents, and by charging them through combinations, the ex-champion skillfully hides the final punch, which has repeatedly stunned his rivals.

In recent years, Blachowicz has tasted the taste of knockouts and turned to the stalls only in extreme cases, but earlier victories by submissions were much more common in his statistics. Strangulation from behind, armbar, hand triangle - all these techniques the veteran performs with a bang, but not in battles with opponents of equal strength.

The Pole clings to the opportunity to win with his teeth, and rushes to the very end, even despite the damage received. Exchanges with his participation are not uncommon, and in spirituality Yana certainly does not hold.


The fight with Glover Teixeira showed the true level of Blachowicz's wrestling skills. He is unsurpassed in attack, but from the back he shows himself faded. Not the best defense against takedowns also goes here, which also spoils the overall picture.

Even for a light heavyweight, Ian is already a little old, and despite the fact that there are unique ones who can fight at the highest level after 40, this is not the case for him. Drawdowns in cardio, lack of progress and aging of the body will force him to slow down from fight to fight.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Blachowicz is 39 years old, and he enters the upcoming fight after a crushing defeat of Teixeira. Prior to that, Yang confidently passed Israel Adesanya, Dominic Reyes and Corey Anderson. It is more than obvious that even while maintaining a good pace of performances and a decent physical shape, the Pole will face degradation, but this time, one should expect good conditions from him, judging by the social networks and the general mood of the athlete.

Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksander Rakic

Aleksander Rakic

Rakic's acquaintance with the sport also began with kickboxing, where he held about 40 performances among amateurs. After, Alexander became a full-fledged representative of the modern MMA school, where there was a place for grappling and other disciplines. Rocket doesn't have any titles behind him, but he's already been able to add a UFC bonus, Performance of the Night bonus, and BJJ purple belt to his collection.

Starting out with strong European opposition like Marcin Prachnio, Rakic gradually moved on to bigger fish, dismantling Devin Clark and Jimmy Manuva, after which he began to be considered as a potential top. At the moment, the Serb is in 3rd place in the rankings and is ready for the title challenge.


Despite the size and the presence of knockout power, Alexander never relies on finishes. He works carefully, carefully, without taking risks where it can lead to unpleasant consequences. That is why there are so many judicial decisions in his statistics lately.

If you look at Rakic's punching spread, in the standing position, he focuses on punching the opponent's head and legs, while demonstrating excellent ground and pound skills. Simply put, he remains dangerous even where the opponent is in his comfort zone.

Just a few times in his career, the Rocket was under an opponent. His takedown defense is at the highest level, because due to the reaction and the most powerful hips, this guy manages to slip out of the hands of even very experienced wrestlers.


One of the main advantages of this fighter is also his disadvantage - accurate, sometimes passive fights with those athletes who work as the first number, open up an operational space for attacks for them, where Rakich gives advantage to them, losing individual episodes.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Alexander is 30 years old, and over the past 3 years he had only one fight per season. Volkan Ozdemir won the victory by split decision in 2019, and Rakic defeated Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos by unanimous decisions. At the moment, its main problem will be a protracted downtime, which has been going on since March last year. Although at this age it will not play such a significant role. You should expect a good form from him, as always, but Alex will have to spend a little more time building up.

Comparative analysis

The favorite, not only in odds, but also in size, will be Alexander Rakich. He is 7 cm taller than his opponent, bypasses him in leg span by 5 cm, and has an identical arm span - 198 cm for both. At the same time, the Serb is drier, more muscular and explosive, but it’s not at all necessary to talk about an age gap (9 years), because we are talking about an athlete on the rise and a fading veteran. Considering that both of them like to fight in a stand-up position, we will most likely be in for a long firefight, where the footwork and accuracy of the Rocket will play a key role. Plus, he kicks more, so the charging Blachowicz will have to try on for a long time before he starts delivering the first accented punches.

Giving Alexander superiority in the standing position, one can also confidently speak about his high level of skills on the ground, however, in this case, protection from transfers from him will play a greater role than BJJ. The fact is that as a pure wrestler and grappler, Yang looks more interesting, but his takedowns are performed only in half of the cases, and knocking down Rakich is another task. Therefore, fuss on the ground floor can only come closer to the equator of the meeting, when both begin to act more openly, having read the gaps in each other's defenses. In the overall standings, the Serbian athlete looks more profitable, both due to technical skills, and because he is corny younger.

Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksander Rakic Fight Prediction

The fighters absolutely deservedly occupy high positions in the ranking, and if they met when the Pole was 5 years younger, the alignment in this fight could look different. But, if you use facts and statistics, it becomes clear that in the standing position, only a heavy blow can oppose Rakich, but it will be difficult to bring it to the head of a moving counterpart. In the horizontal position, too, everything is pretty even, which means that their meeting will be long, and in each round Alexander will be able to score more and more points due to work from a long distance. We have not seen a knockout in his performance since 2019, and who knows if he will be able to give such a confident victory after such a downtime. Nevertheless, he will definitely be able to take at least 3 rounds out of 2, because the bet on the Rocket victory will fully justify itself. Download 1xbet to your phone and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Oleksandr Rakic ​​to win

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